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Q: What is the worst-case scenario event you think will happen in 2020?

  • 1. Contested election (meaning Trump or Biden don't concede the election by Nov 10th)

    Votes: 6 40.0%
  • 2. Trump disputes the validity of the election and causes civil unrest

    Votes: 5 33.3%
  • 3. The pandemic starts overwhelming our medical system

    Votes: 1 6.7%
  • 4. The stock market crashes (defined at S&P dropping below the March 2020 dip)

    Votes: 3 20.0%
  • 5. Alien Invasion

    Votes: 1 6.7%
  • 6. We go to war with China/Iran/etc (defined as declaration of war or troop invasion)

    Votes: 1 6.7%
  • 7. We get invaded

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 8. Civil war in the US (defined as some organized body attacking the govt)

    Votes: 3 20.0%
  • 9. Militia on Militia violence (active shooting between organized non-govt combatants)

    Votes: 8 53.3%
  • 10. Big Rock hits Earth (Tunguska event - 100meters - or bigger)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 11. The Rapture (mass group of people disappear unrelated to aliens)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 12. Messiah declaration gets attention of >1% of population (Jesus or other, not aliens)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 13. Biden disputes the validity of the election and causes civil unrest

    Votes: 2 13.3%
  • 14. Coronavirus evolves like the flu -- significantly setting back vaccination development efforts

    Votes: 1 6.7%
  • Another REGIONAL natural disaster (hurricane, earthquake, tornado swarm, etc)

    Votes: 2 13.3%

  • Total voters
    15
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I didn鈥檛 take the reparations talk too seriously, didn鈥檛 that start from the debates when they were all trying to out woke each other on issues? Think it was started by the same dumb white guy who spoke bad Spanish 馃ぃ
 

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One of the best things about the TCCOA was that political discussions were not allowed.

Some of the other forums I visit have turned into breeding grounds for hatred recently and to be honest, I do not care if these kind of discussions occur here as long as it does not become "you are either with me or against me".
 

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In general we have started permitting casual discussions in that regard as long as everyone can agree to disagree when opinions differ - and above all, keep it civil.
 

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Discussion Starter #25
One of the best things about the TCCOA was that political discussions were not allowed.

Some of the other forums I visit have turned into breeding grounds for hatred recently and to be honest, I do not care if these kind of discussions occur here as long as it does not become "you are either with me or against me".
Fwiw, I think the conversations here have been pretty civil even if people disagree.

I do agree though that some forums have gotten pretty toxic recently. I used to read calguns.net but after seeing how things have swung there after checking in for the first time in maybe a year, I can't say I miss it.
 

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Yes having a small user base actually helps a lot in this case. I think the TCCOA of old had a lot more "toxic" potential.

Sorry, just had to bring that up because it's somewhat relevant and the other forums I go to are mostly politics now and no more tech or showing off your car posts which sort of ruined them for me until this whole election blows over, if some of these poll options end up becoming reality.

Also, another poll idea option to add .. Another Natural disaster. Wildfires in California are already here, meteor strike is not really natural and that is already on the list. Something more along the lines of an earthquake or Katrina type event ?? Just a thought.
 

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It wasnt big, but here in Jersey we had a quake. 3.1 iirc. Happened at 2am. Which for some people aint **** but we never get them.

Florida had two. Just a couple days ago at the Alabama border.


Dat signum. Oportet nos parare.
 

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Always been a fan of Rorschach.

 
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Got news for you.
If you've been following the symptom sets, Coronavirus 2019 (CoVID-19, Novel Coronavirus, "Da 'Ronas", whatever you call it) has so many different sets, I'm betting it's more than one strain ALREADY.

RwP
My wife has been saying this since early on in the 'Rona days.

I didn鈥檛 take the reparations talk too seriously, didn鈥檛 that start from the debates when they were all trying to out woke each other on issues? Think it was started by the same dumb white guy who spoke bad Spanish 馃ぃ
Spanish is my first language. I appreciate a non-Spanish speaker learning Spanish, even if it's broken / bad, as much as I appreciate a non-English speaker learning English, even if it's broken / bad. To me, it shows that even if they don't know the language, they are at least putting the effort into learning the language.

That said, I'd like to learn French as a 3rd language.
 

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Spanish is my first language. I appreciate a non-Spanish speaker learning Spanish, even if it's broken / bad, as much as I appreciate a non-English speaker learning English, even if it's broken / bad. To me, it shows that even if they don't know the language, they are at least putting the effort into learning the language.
It was the impromptu using of the language like a parlor trick in an attempt to dodge a question that was cringe. I knew a little Swedish from my family growing up but if one of the candidates started going 鈥淵umpin' Yiminy鈥 I still don鈥檛 think I鈥檇 vote for them 馃ぃ

It was Beto 鈥極 Rourke IIRC
 

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Discussion Starter #33
1) 48 hrs after starting this thread, it seems like the clear winner seems to be a fear of organized militia violence. black shirts vs brown shirts in the streets -- gang war style not just the occasional skirmish like we've already seen.
2) The second is a contested election - who would push it is TBD but noone expects a smooth election in Nov.

If the belief in #1 and #2 are so strong, why do only 3 of us regulars think we'll see a crash before EOY 2020?
32% of Americans entered Aug with unpaid rent or mortgage payments
Outline - Read & annotate without distractions

That's a significant # of Americans. Even if some companies are doing alright, this simply isn't sustainable if people simply don't have money to pay bills.

I'm surprised this number isn't higher.
 

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I think that it was you who said there is nothing rich people hate more than losing money, and the type of people who cant afford to pay their rent / mortgage most likely do not have money invested.
 

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Upon reflection I don鈥檛 know if I truly expect militia on militia violence on the streets to any degree higher that what we鈥檝e already seen, but I do think what we already see will go on regardless of the election result, but more likely if it鈥檚 a re-election win.

I frankly don鈥檛 get how the stock market actually works in relation to the economy at times, for me there鈥檚 always been a sort of long rubber band relationship between the two and a recession or depression is when it gets too strained and snaps. because one or the other is lagging behind or getting too far ahead. I don鈥檛 feel like the stock market is designed to sustain indefinitely in a situation like a 6+ month long shutdown of everything, and the variable of uncertainty of probable new leadership, or leadership half an edgy public is about ready to burn at the stake.
 

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Discussion Starter #36
I think that it was you who said there is nothing rich people hate more than losing money, and the type of people who cant afford to pay their rent / mortgage most likely do not have money invested.
1) That definitely sounds like a gunnism
2) I agree that people who can't afford rent aren't significantly in the market.

However, the US is like most other developed economies and driven by the consumer services (45% of our GDP).
The second biggest part is driven by consumer goods (25%).

When people stop spending on services (haircuts, etc), the people giving those services have less money to spend on things they need/want.

My concern is a second order problem. I'm not worried about those folks who aren't making rent not buying stocks. I'm worried about them NOT spending money on goods, services, and other items which will have REAL impacts on the revenues of these publicly traded companies. Companies who aren't hitting their revenue targets are less excited to open their wallets and spend money with other B2B companies. This all snowballs. Yes, companies like Apple posted huge revenue gains from Mac, Ipad, and Airpod sales (I'd call it people feathering their nests while stuck at home), but Iphone sales only went up 1.66% YoY.. Are these numbers sustainable after everyone who can upgrade has upgraded? I'm not so sure.
 

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When the market dips, people with spare money tend to buy in cheaper keeping things afloat. It takes money to make money and losing $20k on a bad market day is not going to hurt that much. The market inflates on speculation and may drop or gain based on actual results. After all that, companies like Apple release a new phone every year and a lot of people just feel the need to have the latest version. Other things like actual necessities are a given for profits as long as the population keeps increasing along with demand. If you have ever sat outside the food stamp offices you will notice that even people who rely on government assistance still drive Escalades, buy designer handbags and everybody has a cell phone. Just because they aren't paying rent doesn't mean their kids wont have the newest Call of duty game this christmas.
 

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Thats why Kroger, GIS, AMZN, WMT and TGT are doing so well.
 

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I frankly don鈥檛 get how the stock market actually works in relation to the economy at times, for me there鈥檚 always been a sort of long rubber band relationship between the two and a recession or depression is when it gets too strained and snaps. because one or the other is lagging behind or getting too far ahead. I don鈥檛 feel like the stock market is designed to sustain indefinitely in a situation like a 6+ month long shutdown of everything, and the variable of uncertainty of probable new leadership, or leadership half an edgy public is about ready to burn at the stake.
Okay Matt .. do you want somebody to explain all of these things and how they relate to each other? I think this might be better covered in the stock thread, but we can make it simple for you to understand why the stock market is actually better designed to sustain a business during a recession or depression. Spoon feeding stock market economics 101 ;)
 

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Discussion Starter #40
I frankly don鈥檛 get how the stock market actually works in relation to the economy at times, for me there鈥檚 always been a sort of long rubber band relationship between the two and a recession or depression is when it gets too strained and snaps. because one or the other is lagging behind or getting too far ahead. I don鈥檛 feel like the stock market is designed to sustain indefinitely in a situation like a 6+ month long shutdown of everything, and the variable of uncertainty of probable new leadership, or leadership half an edgy public is about ready to burn at the stake.
Traditionally, the value of any share in the stock market is supposed to be a reflection of the present value of all future cash flows. You can see this when a company is valued at a certain multiplier of their earnings.

This gets out of whack when speculation runs rampant, or the govt gets involved and starts buying debt and or even stocks.

Right now, you have a bunch of people buying into the market at unprecedented highs. Some are true believers like TM and TSLA. Others are following the greater fool theory that some other idiot will buy the overpriced asset for more than they paid. I also believe that with limited entertainment options for gamblers plus cheap margin loans and easy access to the stock market (robinhood), gambling is at an unprecedented high.

One more thing which can bolster the market is inflation. In times like this, people want to hide their money somewhere if they worry about their buying power dropping. I remember when iran was going through crazy turmoil because of foreign sanctions,(iirc that economy is govt driven more than anything else) people were buying cars as stores of value since cars would get more expensive in terms of rial over time.

if you don't have a better place to put money, shoving it into stocks isn't a the worst idea. I do believe that the days of the USD being the world's reserve currency may be numbered because of our ballooned up national debt, but since we all make and spend money in USD, this is a long-term concern. If you don't have cash to buy land that can earn some kind of ROI (land you can rent out or generate income from), this is one reason to consider gold or Bitcoin as a store of value.


1) I think more civil unrest (militia on militia) will hurt the stock market. Thankfully, we aren't there yet. Formenting this unrest though helps the POTUS so I'm afraid he's breaking out the gender reveal bombs in the dry scrubland.
3) I think that the pandemic spiraling out of control more (aka hospitals getting overwhelmed) will hurt the stock market.
4) Any interruption of the peaceful transfer of power will hurt the stock market. Dislike of the guy in charge isn't enough. Plenty of people hated obama and the economy still boomed.
5) democrats taking over generally causes a slight dip but clearly Republicans haven't been the fiscally conservative ones as this administration has shown so I'm not sure if there will be a significant dip.
6) eventually people will see a slowdown in consumer demand with so many people out of work. This more than anything else I think will dampen the market for 12-18mon after an inevitable tumble.
 
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