TCCoA Forums banner

Q: What is the worst-case scenario event you think will happen in 2020?

  • 1. Contested election (meaning Trump or Biden don't concede the election by Nov 10th)

    Votes: 6 40.0%
  • 2. Trump disputes the validity of the election and causes civil unrest

    Votes: 5 33.3%
  • 3. The pandemic starts overwhelming our medical system

    Votes: 2 13.3%
  • 4. The stock market crashes (defined at S&P dropping below the March 2020 dip)

    Votes: 4 26.7%
  • 5. Alien Invasion

    Votes: 1 6.7%
  • 6. We go to war with China/Iran/etc (defined as declaration of war or troop invasion)

    Votes: 1 6.7%
  • 7. We get invaded

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 8. Civil war in the US (defined as some organized body attacking the govt)

    Votes: 3 20.0%
  • 9. Militia on Militia violence (active shooting between organized non-govt combatants)

    Votes: 8 53.3%
  • 10. Big Rock hits Earth (Tunguska event - 100meters - or bigger)

    Votes: 1 6.7%
  • 11. The Rapture (mass group of people disappear unrelated to aliens)

    Votes: 1 6.7%
  • 12. Messiah declaration gets attention of >1% of population (Jesus or other, not aliens)

    Votes: 1 6.7%
  • 13. Biden disputes the validity of the election and causes civil unrest

    Votes: 2 13.3%
  • 14. Coronavirus evolves like the flu -- significantly setting back vaccination development efforts

    Votes: 1 6.7%
  • Another REGIONAL natural disaster (hurricane, earthquake, tornado swarm, etc)

    Votes: 3 20.0%
  • 16. One of the current presidential candidates steps down/dies before the election

    Votes: 1 6.7%
  • 17. Post Nov, our President elect dies.

    Votes: 1 6.7%
141 - 160 of 186 Posts

·
Super Moderator
1994 Cougar XR7 DOHC/5-Speed
Joined
·
17,957 Posts
The more and more I think of it I don’t know why we even need representatives anymore other than tradition. It made sense in the 1700s when news and information traveled via horseback and having someone represent the people effectively out of the loop of issues, counter arguments, perspectives and new developments, who can make decisions for us.

This is the 21st century, we have 24hr instant access to literally every issue that we have a direct opinion on, yet in order to essentially vote yes or no on anything I must vote for some dickweed once every few years who may or may not do what I wanted, and vote yes or no on a bunch of other **** I wouldn’t. Basically dump the whole legislative branch and replace it directly by the voters. Keep the executive branch as is to deal with foreign leaders and run the military as usual, but posit issues to vote on to us, keep the judicial branch as is to approve them and bam, much more efficient democracy, free of lobbying, free of fat, free of schoolyard bullshit, possibly even effectively rid us off the two party system, or any party system.
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
13,029 Posts
Well, hell that's one approach Matt. LOL! I really wish more people would take informed interest and an active role in our political system. The lack of serious understanding and participation is a large contributing factor to the mess we are in now.

Yes, we've become a plutocratic oligarchy - The wealthy few rule - from the billionaires and multi-millionaires to the corporations that now have a very large say in our elections thanks to the Citizens United decision (2010).

I'm sure the founding fathers are churning in their graves at what we've become. How to fix this is anyone's guess. Unfortunately, we're just along for the ride.

In theory, the President is a bum. In reality he's a KING. I've always loved these scenes. If you haven't seen them check them out. If you have seen them, they're worth seeing again.


America is NOT "The Greatest".

 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
13,029 Posts
This is interesting. It looks like the trump campaign is giving up on the election and is just betting on messing it up and then contesting the results.

Waving The White Flag

Donald Trump Is Canceling TV Ads In Midwest States That Made Him President

”I don’t think the spin is in any way congruent with the reality,” one Republican strategist said of the Trump campaign's messaging.

”He’s been off the local airwaves completely in Iowa and Ohio. The campaign also has given up at least $2 million worth of reservations in both Michigan and Wisconsin since early September. And in Minnesota, a state Trump almost won four years ago and has expressed confidence in flipping, his team already has chopped about $5 million from its projected fall TV budget.”
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,490 Posts
The propositions, I am voting on. I have made up my mind on most of them. The third rail item, Prop 15, being a huge modification to Prop 13, can shove it. We are already a high tax state, and Prop 15 is going to be a slippery slope for Prop 13 if Prop 15 passes.
Prop 15 will not change property taxes for home owners.
Its target is businesses with over 3 million dollars worth of property. Do you think companies like google and apple should pay property taxes based on their original value or what they are currently worth today ??

Yes on 15

No on 22 .. Those grub hub and lyft drivers can shove it. 😂
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,054 Posts
Prop 15 will not change property taxes for home owners.
Its target is businesses with over 3 million dollars worth of property. Do you think companies like google and apple should pay property taxes based on their original value or what they are currently worth today ??

Yes on 15

No on 22 .. Those grub hub and lyft drivers can shove it. 😂
I understand that it's for businesses over $3M of property. But I see it as a slippery slope. If Prop 15 passes, I can see them going for Prop 13 later down the road.

Also, IMO, a small business can have $3M worth of property which would negatively impact the business. And considering that businesses are hurting because if the COVID recession, is right now really the time to be increasing taxes on small businesses?

If they want Prop 15, they need to make it be for a larger sum of money on property, perhaps, $10M.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,389 Posts
Discussion Starter #146
Prop 15 will not change property taxes for home owners.
Its target is businesses with over 3 million dollars worth of property. Do you think companies like google and apple should pay property taxes based on their original value or what they are currently worth today ??

Yes on 15

No on 22 .. Those grub hub and lyft drivers can shove it. 😂
I agree with Dan on this one Yes on 15.
  • An INCREDIBLE amount of downtown buildings are currently well under market value EVEN though the owner of most buildings have changed hands.
  • This is causing MASSIVE distortion of the tax base where newer homeowners take on a substantial amount of taxes compared to commercial RE.
  • How is this possible? When a residential property changes hands, the property tax gets revalued to the purchase price unless it was a family inheritance. However, commercial buildings are held by a corporation/trust and when they want to transfer use/"ownership", they transfer ownership of the corporation/trust controlling the property and NOT the underlying property. This way, the "owner" of 555 California street doesn't change on paper BUT effective control does. Now, there have been laws to try and fix that by saying if over X% control changes of the owning corporation, the municipality gets the right to revalue BUT this just means more work for lawyers to create complicated structures that are legally sound. The result is the same: commercial property is undervalued tax-wise vs residentail property STATEWIDE.
Now, I suspect this isn't a significant issue for smaller towns but in big cities, its a HUGE burden and NOT what the original taxpayers who revolted in the late 70s had intended with prop 13.

Please help us fix it by voting YES on 15.

====
As far as 22, I'm ambivalent. On one hand, I can see why they want to become employees (no vote). On the other, I don't like how these companies (and not individuals) are really pushing the story that "the little guy wants to remain self-employed" and pushing YES so hard.
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
13,029 Posts
Very interesting. If there's a loophole to be found the wealthy will find it. If there's not one, they'll buy off legislators to create one. Wash and repeat.

I guess in CA they don't do tax value re-evaluations of commercial properties? In NC tax value re-evaluations are done on a regular basis regardless of who owns the property. My home's tax value has been re-evaluated twice since I bought it.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,389 Posts
Discussion Starter #148
Very interesting. If there's a loophole to be found the wealthy will find it. If there's not one, they'll buy off legislators to create one. Wash and repeat.

I guess in CA they don't do tax value re-evaluations of commercial properties? In NC tax value re-evaluations are done on a regular basis regardless of who owns the property. My home's tax value has been re-evaluated twice since I bought it.
Prop 13 locks the arms of the govt. You can't revalue property unless ownership changes hands. While it still irks me that I pay $14k or so in property taxes when my neighbor pays $400 a year, it's not nearly as troublesome as commercial properties not paying their fair share.

You can see from this report that the problem has been going on for decades
[/URL]

Currently, it looks like the property tax burden in CA is 72% homeowners and 28% commercial. That's fucked.

Now in past years SF and other municipalities have tried to claw back some tax money by tying property redevelopment with an agreement to pay more taxes. If Twitter wants commercial space below their building, you got to pay up. In my opinion, while this makes tactical sense, an arbitrary system like this is ripe for exploitation. Those who are better connected get better deals (aka keep more of their cheap tax basis). Those who aren't get made into examples of how this supervisor is looking out for the little folks. BS.
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
13,029 Posts
Wow! NAIL - ON - HEAD.

The rabid attacks kindle the conspiracy mongers and the haters who take the small and predictable step from intemperate word to dangerous action," Romney said. "The world is watching America with abject horror; more consequentially, our children are watching. Many Americans are frightened for our country — so divided, so angry, so mean, so violent."

"It is time to lower the heat," Romney continued. "Leaders must tone it down. Leaders from the top and leaders of all stripes: Parents, bosses, reporters, columnists, professors, union chiefs, everyone. The consequence of the crescendo of anger leads to a very bad place. No sane person can want that."

 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,389 Posts
Discussion Starter #151
The more and more I think of it I don’t know why we even need representatives anymore other than tradition. It made sense in the 1700s when news and information traveled via horseback and having someone represent the people effectively out of the loop of issues, counter arguments, perspectives and new developments, who can make decisions for us.

This is the 21st century, we have 24hr instant access to literally every issue that we have a direct opinion on, yet in order to essentially vote yes or no on anything I must vote for some dickweed once every few years who may or may not do what I wanted, and vote yes or no on a bunch of other **** I wouldn’t. Basically dump the whole legislative branch and replace it directly by the voters. Keep the executive branch as is to deal with foreign leaders and run the military as usual, but posit issues to vote on to us, keep the judicial branch as is to approve them and bam, much more efficient democracy, free of lobbying, free of fat, free of schoolyard bullshit, possibly even effectively rid us off the two party system, or any party system.
What you are suggesting has been covered in the SF series Revelation Space as the way various near-earth Habitats organize themselves. The book to start is The Prefect, by Alistair Reynolds.


All habitats in the glitter band represent a different format of society, all linked by the common right to vote. A giant computer network runs thousands of polls everyday to decide the general actions of the Glitter Band as a whole. Most inhabitants have built in computer routines in their brains that make these decisions for them, making a conscious effort on only the most important polls.

Every habitat has a polling core, a giant computer that generates the polls and transmits the inhabitants’ votes. Each habitat votes on its own laws and punishments, the only universal crime being withholding someone’s right to vote, fraudulent voting, or restricting someone's access to abstraction (a form of digital communication and virtual reality used throughout the Glitter Band).

The right to vote and access abstraction for each inhabitant is policed by the Glitter Bands’ security force, Panoply. Chasm City is policed independently, and most habitats have their own internal constabulary forces to police other crimes. Interesting story about a society could operate like that with a police force ONLY concerned about voting; some people choose to live in totalitarian habitats and find themselves regretting their decisions. Whoops.

Panoply is the police force for the Glitter Band. It exists in its own dedicated habitat, governed by a lightly armed force of Prefects.

Panoply does not have the right to carry armed weaponry as standard, with the exception of whip-hounds, electronic whips that are used primarily in defence. If Panoply feels the need to use heavier weaponry, this must be voted on by the entire Glitter Band in an emergency poll before any action can be undertaken (although Panoply command ignores this limitation in the novel, and uses heavy weapons in spite of a vote against it). In this regard, Panoply can only exist if the populace is happy for them to proceed, which defuses much potential tension in this particular society. One issue the Prefects have to grapple with is that they can only enforce the right to vote and access to abstraction; they are not permitted to stop any other human rights violations. This eventually drives Prefect Gaffney to assist Aurora, the antagonist, in her takeover bid.

---
Back in reality, two other interesting comments came up about that Militia in Michigan that targeted their governor. It really does make you wonder how close to civil war we may be vs militia/gangs.
1) The militia was named completely uninterestingly Wolverine Watchmen; even if Wolverine is a common MI thing like Longhorns in TX, I'll bet at least a members were comic book nerds.

2) More worrisomely, they were also targeting the governor of VA.
 

·
Super Moderator
1994 Cougar XR7 DOHC/5-Speed
Joined
·
17,957 Posts
Wow! NAIL - ON - HEAD.

The rabid attacks kindle the conspiracy mongers and the haters who take the small and predictable step from intemperate word to dangerous action," Romney said. "The world is watching America with abject horror; more consequentially, our children are watching. Many Americans are frightened for our country — so divided, so angry, so mean, so violent."

"It is time to lower the heat," Romney continued. "Leaders must tone it down. Leaders from the top and leaders of all stripes: Parents, bosses, reporters, columnists, professors, union chiefs, everyone. The consequence of the crescendo of anger leads to a very bad place. No sane person can want that."

Gotta admit, Pierre Delecto indeed nailed it there. It doesn’t matter who gets elected next month if the hate from both sides keeps on going.
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
13,029 Posts
LOL... You're funny Matt. Now, where's that laughing up-point smiley when I need it?
 

·
Super Moderator
1997 Thunderbird 4.6, 1998 Mark VIII LSC
Joined
·
9,694 Posts
Right here.



 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,389 Posts
Discussion Starter #156
1) Yesterday I got an email from CAGOV confirming that my vote was counted. This was on top of the previous emails I received letting me know the ballot was on its way to me AND that USPS had received the ballot and it was on the way back to them for counting. IMO, this is how ALL states should operate to give us confidence that the votes are being counted vs being tossed by some Qanon crazies OR some fake ballot drop off boxes (great way to delegitimize the election by causing the very issues you will cite as reasons why the election wasn't "fair").


 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,054 Posts
Prop 13 locks the arms of the govt. You can't revalue property unless ownership changes hands. While it still irks me that I pay $14k or so in property taxes when my neighbor pays $400 a year, it's not nearly as troublesome as commercial properties not paying their fair share.

You can see from this report that the problem has been going on for decades
[/URL]

Currently, it looks like the property tax burden in CA is 72% homeowners and 28% commercial. That's fucked.

Now in past years SF and other municipalities have tried to claw back some tax money by tying property redevelopment with an agreement to pay more taxes. If Twitter wants commercial space below their building, you got to pay up. In my opinion, while this makes tactical sense, an arbitrary system like this is ripe for exploitation. Those who are better connected get better deals (aka keep more of their cheap tax basis). Those who aren't get made into examples of how this supervisor is looking out for the little folks. BS.
With Prop 15, another thing I see happening - as it happens already - is that these companies' increased property tax burdens will be passed down to the consumer.

For example, Tesla just announced that they are dropping the price on the Model S and Model 3. If Prop 15 passes, I wouldn't be surprised that they increase the price back up, and increase it more than what it was at before the price drop.

Malls were already sliding down in people visiting / buying from them before COVID. If Prop 15 passes, it will only accelerate this in California as people will buy less because the individual stores will have to increase their prices of what they sell because their rent ok their space increased dramatically. We will complain even further that everything is so expensive when we already complain that everything is as expensive as it is. Movie theaters, if / when they reopen, will increase their ticket prices because of the increased property tax bill.

I can understand why you and Dan are pro Prop 15, but these businesses won't be paying for it, we will.

That's my take on the whole thing.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RalphP

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
5,262 Posts
CDsDontBurn has one thing square - there is NO business that pays taxes.

Because they become the Cost Of Business (COB), and becomes part of the price of what they charge the consumer.

I think the aim is backwards ... instead of increasing taxes on businesses (which get passed down to the consumer), I'd argue for deleting all taxes as they run today; go to a fixed percentage on sales to the end user (exempt groceries and prescription medicine).

That's as fair and equitable as you can get.

Nor anything else.

RwP
 
  • Like
Reactions: Trunk Monkey

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
7,769 Posts
With Prop 15, another thing I see happening - as it happens already - is that these companies' increased property tax burdens will be passed down to the consumer.

For example, Tesla just announced that they are dropping the price on the Model S and Model 3. If Prop 15 passes, I wouldn't be surprised that they increase the price back up, and increase it more than what it was at before the price drop.

Malls were already sliding down in people visiting / buying from them before COVID. If Prop 15 passes, it will only accelerate this in California as people will buy less because the individual stores will have to increase their prices of what they sell because their rent ok their space increased dramatically. We will complain even further that everything is so expensive when we already complain that everything is as expensive as it is. Movie theaters, if / when they reopen, will increase their ticket prices because of the increased property tax bill.

I can understand why you and Dan are pro Prop 15, but these businesses won't be paying for it, we will.

That's my take on the whole thing.
Very good! Now extrapolate that out to realize that every individual that pays taxes has to earn more money to make the same living, and therefore needs a higher salary than they otherwise would, which means the price of whatever good or service they provide has to go up to pay for their taxes, and you quickly realize that the only people who don't get screwed by government spending are the people that game the system! Taxation is theft, plain and simple, and just like insurance companies raise premiums to offset the cost of fraud, the cost of all goods and services has to go up to offset the cost of taxes.

Literally every question that asks if the government should spend more money or collect more taxes should be voted down. No matter how much you like the idea, or think it will be more fair, or no matter how noble the cause may be, the end result is only going to be that your life becomes harder!
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,389 Posts
Discussion Starter #160
CDsDontBurn has one thing square - there is NO business that pays taxes.

Because they become the Cost Of Business (COB), and becomes part of the price of what they charge the consumer.

I think the aim is backwards ... instead of increasing taxes on businesses (which get passed down to the consumer), I'd argue for deleting all taxes as they run today; go to a fixed percentage on sales to the end user (exempt groceries and prescription medicine).

That's as fair and equitable as you can get.

Nor anything else.

RwP
A tax on sales is a regressive tax meaning it hurts poorer people FAR more than it hurts rich people. Sure, wealthier people buy more stuff but even this additional spending turns out to be a much SMALLER percentage of their income (let alone their net worth). No matter how you look at it, a VAT/GST (value added taxes & goods and services taxes) adversely affect poorer people as a percentage of their income OR of their net worth. Also, tax avoidance becomes a much bigger issue. When sales taxes start climbing up above 10%, it hits a threshold were compliance drops. People start paying cash for services and things where. The govt recognizes this and this is why things like cold food from a grocery store is tax free.

As far as the argument that we shouldn't impose a tax on commercial property b/c prices will climb: you have to keep in mind that this has been out of whack for a long, long time. In other states, the number is NOT nearly as out of whack as it is in the CA.

As far as using the argument that it would make goods more expensive: this is not a fix that goes in overnight. It will only affect NEW transactions which will get revalued based on the price the property is transacted for (aka what the new commercial buyer is willing to pay for that property ... not the price that was paid for the property in ~1978 when it was placed into a trust/holding company). if the landlord/owner decides to try and pass it onto the tenant or the consumer, the tenant/consumer still has the right NOT to buy that product/goods/services from those folks. Noone is forcing you to pay $15 for that burger.

I myself am tired of getting hit with parcel taxes all the time; i'd like to see other properties share the burden.
 
141 - 160 of 186 Posts
Top