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What doomsday events might occur in 2021?

  • 1. Stock market crashes again (back to the level of March 2020 or below).

    Votes: 5 41.7%
  • 2. President elect Biden does not assume office on Jan 20th, 2021.

    Votes: 1 8.3%
  • 3. US death toll to covid tops 400K by Jan 19th, 2021

    Votes: 5 41.7%
  • 4. US death toll to covid tops 1M by EOY 2021.

    Votes: 1 8.3%
  • 5. More organized violence around the transfer of power in Jan 2021.

    Votes: 5 41.7%
  • 6. Another foreign govt non-state actor starts trouble b/c of political unrest in the US.

    Votes: 3 25.0%
  • 7. While president, Trump pardons his family for crimes.

    Votes: 8 66.7%
  • 8. While president, Trump attempts to pardon himself

    Votes: 7 58.3%
  • 9. Citizen Trump gets criminally indicted on any charge greater than a misdemeanor

    Votes: 4 33.3%
  • 10. Democrats win both seats in GA Senate race and split the Senate 50/50.

    Votes: 4 33.3%
  • 11. Mass shootings in the US resume (Single event death toll >10).

    Votes: 4 33.3%
  • 12. Act of domestic or foreign terrorism on US soil.

    Votes: 4 33.3%
  • 13. Alien Invasion.

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 14. Japan postpones the summer Olympics (again).

    Votes: 2 16.7%
  • 15. Trump pardons Ghislaine Maxwell (Epstein's associate).

    Votes: 2 16.7%
  • 16. Civil war erupts / Organized, large scale, militia attacks and/or bombings/the end of demorcacy

    Votes: 1 8.3%
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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
Happy NY to everyone. Now that 2020 is finally over, I think we should recap what happened and didnt

WE CAN ALL AGREE HAPPENED

1. Contested election (meaning Trump or Biden don't concede the election by Nov 10th)
Votes: 7 41.2%
2. Trump disputes the validity of the election and causes civil unrest
Votes: 6 35.3%
3. The pandemic starts overwhelming our medical system
Votes: 3 17.6%

MAYBE HAPPENED
9. Militia on Militia violence (active shooting between organized non-govt combatants)
Votes: 8 47.1%
14. Coronavirus evolves like the flu -- significantly setting back vaccination development efforts
Votes: 3 17.6%
19. Terrorist attack before Jan 20th
Votes: 0 0.0%

We Can Probably Agree What didn't Happen
4. The stock market crashes (defined at S&P dropping below the March 2020 dip)
Votes: 4 23.5%
5. Alien Invasion
Votes: 1 5.9%
6. We go to war with China/Iran/etc (defined as declaration of war or troop invasion)
Votes: 1 5.9%
7. We get invaded
Votes: 0 0.0%
8. Civil war in the US (defined as some organized body attacking the govt)
Votes: 3 17.6%
10. Big Rock hits Earth (Tunguska event - 100meters - or bigger)
Votes: 1 5.9%
11. The Rapture (mass group of people disappear unrelated to aliens)
Votes: 1 5.9%
12. Messiah declaration gets attention of >1% of population (Jesus or other, not aliens)
Votes: 2 11.8%
13. Biden disputes the validity of the election and causes civil unrest
Votes: 2 11.8%
Another REGIONAL natural disaster (hurricane, earthquake, tornado swarm, etc)
Votes: 4 23.5%
16. One of the current presidential candidates steps down/dies before the election
Votes: 1 5.9%
17. Post Nov, our President elect dies.
Votes: 2 11.8%
18. Beheadings (of people not statues) by domestic terrorists (any flavor).
Votes: 1 5.9%
20. Another country taking advantage of US being distracted with power xfer (ex: Crimean invasion)
Votes: 0 0.0%

Stuff for Debate

Q: I put the items that might happen. What else am I missing?
I think Mid-Jan is going to be an interesting time.

Q: Are some of the maybe's "YES, it did happen" that are probably worth discussing
  • It is surprising that the reasoning for the nashville bomber hasn't come out yet even though there's comments that maybe it was just a crazy lashing out about 5G. Is this an ideologically driven attack? By every other measure (size of attack, lashing out), you would call it a terrrist attack
  • The coronavirus DID evolve and will kill mroe people b/c of his virulence. So far it hasn't slowed down the vaccine but it could still happen.
 

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Who was counting your votes with over 700% voting???

RwP
 

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I'm glad to see you've started a new Doomsday poll for 2021. That was a great idea to get this started last year.

I'll add "Democrats win both seats in GA Senate race and split the Senate 50/50." Some might see this as a "Doomsday" event. Personally, I don't.

I'd have to agree. On all typical measures of a "Terrorist Attack" the Nashville bombing checks the boxes. It doesn't have to be a foreign attack. Domestic terrorism is alive and well. I'm pretty sure that the reasoning has come out. Not sure what you're looking for? His former girlfriend alerted authorities over a year ago that he was building bombs - or at least talking about it, the authorities knew he had the know how to do it and for technical reasons (There wasn't enough probable cause for a search warrant of his property) there was never sufficient follow up of her complaint.

Edit: I would add "Return to Moon" but it looks like 2022 is the earliest that that will happen.

 
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I’m not willing to call the Nashville bombing a terrorist attack given the timing, warnings for people to evacuate and unclear motive, even if the 5G thing is a conspiracy(ideology?) he subscribed to. Terrorists act without compassion and deliberately use people in their death toll as pawns to attempt to advance their cause, which this guy seemingly went out of his way to not do, if it was directed at the AT&T building it was a laser focused attack on that vacant building and what technology he thought was inside it that is crucial to the operation of 5G. The resulting surrounding damage was certainly bad enough, but there have been industrial accidents that have taken out city blocks before.

I think terrorist is another “ist” thrown around way too much these days, for the government it’s an excuse to grow homeland security, for us civilians it’s a means to ascribe meaning to the senseless tragedy. We just can’t accept the idea of lethally crazy lone loons out there, so the way we cope is to put a nice tidy label on it to move on.
 

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I'll rework the goul math for the Jan 19 deadline. (Pun intended)

GIVEN


The current daily average of 3,212 deaths/day (Based on an average of 15 days)

EDIT: December was the deadliest COVID month of 2020. One of the talking heads on TV said that "This isn't a second or third wave. This isn't a wave upon a wave. This is a Tsunami of COVID cases and deaths."

As of January 1, 2021: 1 in 16 Americans has been diagnosed with COVID.

There are 18 days between now and Jan 19 (Including Jan 19):

3,212 deaths/day x 18 days = 57,816 deaths

The current US death toll:

Using the current John Hopkin's number the math works out to: 404,503 by January 19.
Using the current COVID Tracking Project number: 394,595 by January 19.

Will we hit 400K deaths before January 20? Depending on who's numbers you use. Yes and no. I'm going to go with Yes on both accounts given the non-linear exponential growth that is happening.
 

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I put my votes in!
 

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Voted, I went with 1,3,5,7,8. This one is trickier since the 2020 thread encompassed only the last couple months of the year, so broad strokes this time. If the lockdowns keep happening for the better part of the year I see the stock market tanking again, 400k by the end of the month seems plausible given the math(I don’t see 1M by the end of the year though), I definitely think there will be inauguration protests and violent clashes, and given how pardon happy he’s been anything concerning himself or his family Trump will definitely choose preservation. I considered 11 and 12 but I feel those are plausible in any given year but with the lockdowns they actually seem less likely than usual, and 9 I just think is wishful thinking.
 

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Voted, I went with 1,3,5,7,8. This one is trickier since the 2020 thread encompassed only the last couple months of the year, so broad strokes this time. If the lockdowns keep happening for the better part of the year I see the stock market tanking again, 400k by the end of the month seems plausible given the math(I don’t see 1M by the end of the year though), I definitely think there will be inauguration protests and violent clashes, and given how pardon happy he’s been anything concerning himself or his family Trump will definitely choose preservation. I considered 11 and 12 but I feel those are plausible in any given year but with the lockdowns they actually seem less likely than usual, and 9 I just think is wishful thinking.
I was looking at # 11 - Mass shootings. Amazingly (and this is a good thing) there were no mass shootings in the country last year with a single event death toll greater than 7.

 

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Added my 2 cents! :devilish:

Joe
 

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Discussion Starter #13
I’m not willing to call the Nashville bombing a terrorist attack given the timing, warnings for people to evacuate and unclear motive, even if the 5G thing is a conspiracy(ideology?) he subscribed to. Terrorists act without compassion and deliberately use people in their death toll as pawns to attempt to advance their cause, which this guy seemingly went out of his way to not do, if it was directed at the AT&T building it was a laser focused attack on that vacant building and what technology he thought was inside it that is crucial to the operation of 5G. The resulting surrounding damage was certainly bad enough, but there have been industrial accidents that have taken out city blocks before.

I think terrorist is another “ist” thrown around way too much these days, for the government it’s an excuse to grow homeland security, for us civilians it’s a means to ascribe meaning to the senseless tragedy. We just can’t accept the idea of lethally crazy lone loons out there, so the way we cope is to put a nice tidy label on it to move on.
On terrorism: there were several situations (but not always) during the IRA's terror campaigns in London where they warned people to minimize civilian casualties. However, these were by all non-involved parties, terror attacks. One person's terrorist is another person's freedom fighter.

A fair argument could be made that by making the warnings but not broadcasting a countdown timer, the goal could have been to draw in and kill first responders in addition to the property damage.
This was what the San Bernadino and Orlando attackers were planning with suicide vests.

I'm not supporting pervasive monitoring leveraging the patriot act and/or pre-crime style preemptive arrests but if the nashville bomber was brown, I'd wager that every news outlet in the US short of Al Jazeera would have called it a terror attack pretty quickly.

My wife suggested another item for the poll: will Japan, which has done an impressive job of containing covid (although I think one of my coworkers has it there), postpone the summer olympics again?

For 2022: will the Beijing winter olympics happen?
 

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On terrorism: there were several situations (but not always) during the IRA's terror campaigns in London where they warned people to minimize civilian casualties. However, these were by all non-involved parties, terror attacks. One person's terrorist is another person's freedom fighter.

A fair argument could be made that by making the warnings but not broadcasting a countdown timer, the goal could have been to draw in and kill first responders in addition to the property damage.
This was what the San Bernadino and Orlando attackers were planning with suicide vests.

I'm not supporting pervasive monitoring leveraging the patriot act and/or pre-crime style preemptive arrests but if the nashville bomber was brown, I'd wager that every news outlet in the US short of Al Jazeera would have called it a terror attack pretty quickly.
There are plenty of official classified acts of domestic terrorism committed by white guys, and in Nashville just about every news outlet was calling it an alleged terror attack before the investigators scooped up the guy’s cheek off of the VIN plate before any details about him came out. The media were also speculating the Vegas shooter had ties to isis when that happened, well after they established his white identity, but as far as I can recall no motive tied to ideology has actually been figured out in that tragic event, and that one had a significant body count, I’d be far more open to calling that a terrorist act given the impact.

And that’s the key thing with the IRA as well, casualties. They targeted enemies, this guy allegedly targeted a building in either a symbolic gesture or the wireless technology that was in it at a time it was presumably empty of people. It actually echos the killdozer rampage with the details we know now. If this was a ploy to lure in first responders, why be inside the RV and not do it remotely or by a timer? If nobody was around it at the time it went off, why didn’t he stop it? why detonate when he did?

Minus the dramatic explosion, realistically the property damage committed from arson during looting has heretofore more of an idealistic message attached to the property damage than this does. Are those perpetrators terrorists?
 

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Discussion Starter #15
There are plenty of official classified acts of domestic terrorism committed by white guys, and in Nashville just about every news outlet was calling it an alleged terror attack before the investigators scooped up the guy’s cheek off of the VIN plate before any details about him came out. The media were also speculating the Vegas shooter had ties to isis when that happened, well after they established his white identity, but as far as I can recall no motive tied to ideology has actually been figured out in that tragic event, and that one had a significant body count, I’d be far more open to calling that a terrorist act given the impact.

And that’s the key thing with the IRA as well, casualties. They targeted enemies, this guy allegedly targeted a building in either a symbolic gesture or the wireless technology that was in it at a time it was presumably empty of people. It actually echos the killdozer rampage with the details we know now. If this was a ploy to lure in first responders, why be inside the RV and not do it remotely or by a timer? If nobody was around it at the time it went off, why didn’t he stop it? why detonate when he did?

Minus the dramatic explosion, realistically the property damage committed from arson during looting has heretofore more of an idealistic message attached to the property damage than this does. Are those perpetrators terrorists?
We will find out as time goes on but it's not clear that the nashvill crazie was ONLY trying to do property damage.
As far as if looters can be classified as terrorists, IMO it would depend on the target AND on the numbers of the perpetrators.
if the target were commercial businesses because of their money, I wouldn't call them terrorists. if they were targeting only minority/gay/whatever businesses, I think the terrorism definition fits b/c the goal is to strike fear in that group. I remember a bunch of idiots torching SUVs at a car dealership. IMO, the eco-terrorism label fits b/c the targets were united under a specific ideology (vehicles bad).

IMO, size also matters.
If a small group were out to ransack a specific group's homes/business (say a jewish neighborhood or an asian neighborhood), I think the terrorist label.
If it was a large group (like the nazis or ISIS) doing the same, i'm not personally sure the terrorism name fits the action of looting alone.
 

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We will find out as time goes on but it's not clear that the nashvill crazie was ONLY trying to do property damage.
It’s all up to speculation of course, I like everyone would like to hear a concrete motive for such an attention grabbing act, but right now there is more evidence to say that was the goal than not.


As far as if looters can be classified as terrorists, IMO it would depend on the target AND on the numbers of the perpetrators.
if the target were commercial businesses because of their money, I wouldn't call them terrorists.
Specific example, a group is against cops and burn down a police precinct? Terroristic act or social justice?

(the ramifications of the answer to that is why I don’t like the idea of applying the label Willy nilly)

if they were targeting only minority/gay/whatever businesses, I think the terrorism definition fits b/c the goal is to strike fear in that group. I remember a bunch of idiots torching SUVs at a car dealership. IMO, the eco-terrorism label fits b/c the targets were united under a specific ideology (vehicles bad).

IMO, size also matters.
If a small group were out to ransack a specific group's homes/business (say a jewish neighborhood or an asian neighborhood), I think the terrorist label.
If it was a large group (like the nazis or ISIS) doing the same, i'm not personally sure the terrorism name fits the action of looting alone.
Interesting thoughts, I think a few of the examples fall into the criteria of hate crimes, but I don’t necessarily separate the two in terms of their atrociousness where their punishment should be treated any differently. But I don’t know with that specific eco terrorist example, the victims in that example are material (the SUVs), and who is the fear stricken into exactly? The dealer for selling them? The automaker for building them? The customer for buying them(who are responsible for the automaker making them and the dealer stocking them)? Semantic argument I know but there’s got to be a willingness or outright goal to take casualties to forward the cause that comes with terroristic actions, and torching a row of cars during the night most people aren’t going to struck with fear with that example, SUV owners and the business just think they’re idiots as you put it. Sure some extreme eco weenies might applaud the action but it’s not changing anything for the cause. I more or less look at it like vandalism like grafitti, only difference between is a felony rather than a petty offense.
 

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It’s all up to speculation of course, I like everyone would like to hear a concrete motive for such an attention grabbing act, but right now there is more evidence to say that was the goal than not.




Specific example, a group is against cops and burn down a police precinct? Terroristic act or social justice?

(the ramifications of the answer to that is why I don’t like the idea of applying the label Willy nilly)



Interesting thoughts, I think a few of the examples fall into the criteria of hate crimes, but I don’t necessarily separate the two in terms of their atrociousness where their punishment should be treated any differently. But I don’t know with that specific eco terrorist example, the victims in that example are material (the SUVs), and who is the fear stricken into exactly? The dealer for selling them? The automaker for building them? The customer for buying them(who are responsible for the automaker making them and the dealer stocking them)? Semantic argument I know but there’s got to be a willingness or outright goal to take casualties to forward the cause that comes with terroristic actions, and torching a row of cars during the night most people aren’t going to struck with fear with that example, SUV owners and the business just think they’re idiots as you put it. Sure some extreme eco weenies might applaud the action but it’s not changing anything for the cause. I more or less look at it like vandalism like grafitti, only difference between is a felony rather than a petty offense.
Burning down a precinct would be a terrorist action.

I'm not doing to defend the eco weenies. IIRC, the action o remember was a 'protest' against giant SUVs. The problem was that by burning them they released way more greenhouse gases than if the vehicles were used normally. These were just attention seeking aholes.

 

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The problem was that by burning them they released way more greenhouse gases than if the vehicles were used normally.
The irony here 🤣.

If they wanted to be effective, they could have used an angle grinder and cut off the A pillars and cut into any other vehicle critical structure deeming the vehicle inoperable for use. But what do they know, right?
 

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The irony here 🤣.

If they wanted to be effective, they could have used an angle grinder and cut off the A pillars and cut into any other vehicle critical structure deeming the vehicle inoperable for use. But what do they know, right?
I had the very same thoughts when I heard about the ELF.
 

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The irony here 🤣.

If they wanted to be effective, they could have used an angle grinder and cut off the A pillars and cut into any other vehicle critical structure deeming the vehicle inoperable for use. But what do they know, right?
Might be a tad noisy and time consuming, and really they’d either need a long ass extension cord and an outlet or a compressor if it’s an air grinder, which is kind of “giving in to the man” as well. 😂
 
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