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The numbers are from early on; the truth is that no one knows what the actual spread rate ism because we're only testing people with symptoms, who are already having issues.

We DO really need to test everyone in the us, throw the infected in quarantine, and go on with life.

But for that to work, we Do have to test everyone, probably more than once.
 

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The numbers are from early on; the truth is that no one knows what the actual spread rate ism because we're only testing people with symptoms, who are already having issues.

We DO really need to test everyone in the us, throw the infected in quarantine, and go on with life.

But for that to work, we Do have to test everyone, probably more than once.
OTOH, we did have one good microcosm test bed - the Diamond Princess.

To recap, closed system, several of the customers were immunocompromised (one was in the middle of chemo therapy!), and ... out of a population of 3,711 total (including crew), there were 712 who tested positive; of these, 37 required intensive care and 9 died.

Source: Public Health Responses to COVID-19 Outbreaks on Cruise Ships...

Now, Nature Magazine points out that combined with info from China indicates the actual fatality rate is about .5 % - one half of one percent - in the general population. See What the cruise-ship outbreaks reveal about COVID-19 dry Since older voters are more apt to vote conservative, it's almost surprising that the DNC and most Democrats aren't all in favor of infecting older folks. Wait - Cuomo IS!

All in all, it's a bad disease; when it gets to you, it's really nasty; but so far we're not even at the total death rate Hong Kong Flu was in 1968, and are WAY below that in percentage.

Pardon me if I don't exactly fall over and wail "Oh woe is me!" when everyone's claiming it as "Death to all!". Numbers don't support it; I've lived through worse pandemics; and when it comes to shutdowns - well, check Tokyo and Sweden. THEY didn't go into lock downs.

I don't think it was a conspiracy; but I DO think there's been a lot of opportune politics around it.

RwP
 

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Discussion Starter #363
I agree arguing politics is useless. Let's just look at the numbers.

Ken, you asked if 2/3 new cases in NY are from people already isolating under the strict guidelines. Is the isolation really helping at this point? On the flip side, if 2/3 of new cases in New York were not isolating under strict guidelines where do you think the infection rate would be?

No, Greg didn't make that number up Ken, that 20% number was provided by the CDC back in March. The ratio was based on more than 2,400 cases.

Here are some more recent CDC Numbers for a larger sampling of 14 States during the month of March show the following rates of hospitalization per 100,000 people:
18-49 at 2,500
50-64 at 7,400
65-74 at 12,200
75-84 at 15,800
Over 85 at 17,200

So, based on these March numbers the average hospitalization rate is ~ 11.02%. I left out the percentages for those under 18 because the numbers are so negligible.

Let's hope and pray that the cumulative percentage of hospitalizations never reaches 10% of the US population because at a 10% hospitalization rate, all hospital beds in the U.S. will be filled.

Anyway, let the canaries fly into the mine ... With limited testing we're currently at 1.33 million confirmed cases in the US and 79,525 fatalities so far. I'll be watching to see how this plays out.

Sources:

Helpful maps and charts:
 

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Canaries are already flying into the mine -

South Carolina started unlocking back on April 20th.

Funny thing. They don't seem to have that many more cases ... see the Wiki data feed, graph is first thing at south carolina covid deaths - Google Search .

I'm having a problem pulling the death curve out; but overall it's not been that bad, compared to most of the forecasts.

So.

Food for thought.

RwP
 

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Discussion Starter #365 (Edited)
I wouldn't set my expectations for the country based on the state of SC. Infection rates are going to vary by location and the numbers of people traveling into and out of that location from other places. Have you ever been to SC Ralph? It's about as barren as North Dakota. Except for a few minor cities scattered here and there and a strip of ocean front property the state is pretty much empty.

True, the death curve hasn't been as bad as some of the projections but it's still bad. It hasn't been "that bad" for two reasons; Epic work by our health care professionals and enforced social distancing.

I've been tracking the deaths since almost day 1 using the Johns Hopkins numbers. My chart runs for almost two months. Starting on the 19th of March when the death toll was "only" 150 through today at 80,352. In 54 days there have been 80,202 deaths. So, that's an average of 1,485 deaths per day or 10,395 per week.

Here's what the numbers show:

It took from February 6 to April 6 to get to 10,000 fatalities: (61 days)
It took only six days to get to the next 10,000 on April 12
It took only five days to get to the next 10,000 mark. - Now at over 30K fatalities some time on April 16.
It took another five day to get to the next 10,000 mark on April 21. Now at over 40,000 fatalities.
We surpassed 50,000 fatalities just three days later on April 24.
60,000 fatalities five days later on April 29
70,000 fatalities five days later again on May 4 and over
80,000 fatalities today, May 11. It took just over a week to get to the next 10K so now let's all go out and play and see what happens. My guess is that we'll be back to reaching those 10K marks in three to five days again. I honestly hope I'm wrong ... time will tell.



38335



For those who say the regular flu/pneumonia kills just as many, look closely at where the regular flu/pneumonia falls on this bubble graph for the week of April 6 to 12.

38336
 

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Not to argue too much, but South Caroline is the 19th most densely populated state in the US. With a population of a bit over 5.2 million people, and a surface area of 32,020 square miles, that's about 153 plus people per square mile.

North Dakota figures about 11 people per square mile ...

That's ... not even in the same order of magnitude.

Now. "Nowhere near as many people dying from the flu!" Numbers don't lie, but statisticians usually can't tell you how many fingers they have. :) Looking at CDC graphs, we're not much above the flu count normal for this time of year. Check this chart:



DO notice that CoVID-19 is running just barely ahead of heart disease right now according to your numbers ... and if you test positive for CoVID-19, the current rules make that "Cause of death" even if what happens is, like the DIL's aunt, your heart screws up its timing and literally blows itself in half. Again, statistics should always be taken with a grain of salt.

But here's another chart:

 

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Discussion Starter #367
No worries, thanks for the numbers.

I just threw ND out there as an example - another very sparsely populated state that I worked in last year. I had no idea that SC is so densely populated. Having driven through a good part of it on numerous occasions you could have fooled me. Yeah, it's 153 per square mile on average. But I bet the real number is like 400 per square mile in the urban centers of Rock Hill/Fort Mill, Charleston, Columbia, Greenville/Spartanburg and down the coast and like 2 per square mile everywhere else. Have you ever driven through SC?

You asked for statistics and said you were having a problem pulling the death curve out, I threw the numbers I had out there. As I said, it hasn't been "that bad" for two reasons; Epic work by our health care professionals and enforced social distancing. Take either mitigating factor away and watch the statistics change.
 

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Interesting commentary from a professor of immunology about the risks and exposures in various activities.

In indoor environments with limited airflow, you are basically fucked even if you maintain social distancing. Also, singing is a great way to aerosolize the virus.
 

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I had no idea that SC is so densely populated. Having driven through a good part of it on numerous occasions you could have fooled me. Yeah, it's 153 per square mile on average. But I bet the real number is like 400 per square mile in the urban centers of Rock Hill/Fort Mill, Charleston, Columbia, Greenville/Spartanburg and down the coast and like 2 per square mile everywhere else. Have you ever driven through SC?
They used to say that when there was a Clemson football game that it was the largest city in the state, lol!

Well, the infamous COVD-19 tracker I have been following had shown 25k new cases in the US every day for the last 7 weeks. Yesterday it had +11k and today had only +4k, so that's a good sign. I'm sure the numbers have been skewed for a while because of more tests becoming available and whatnot. Microsoft Bing COVID-19 Tracker

Al
 

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Discussion Starter #370 (Edited)
Fauchi is testifying to the Senate today. Take the time to watch.
 

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They used to say that when there was a Clemson football game that it was the largest city in the state, lol!

Well, the infamous COVD-19 tracker I have been following had shown 25k new cases in the US every day for the last 7 weeks. Yesterday it had +11k and today had only +4k, so that's a good sign. I'm sure the numbers have been skewed for a while because of more tests becoming available and whatnot. Microsoft Bing COVID-19 Tracker

Al
The world has measles...

38337
 

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This came out yesterday. At least they are seeing themselves (if not necessarily admitting to the public) that things aren't going so well for them.

On the brighter side, it seems like Gilead is releasing remdesivir to be mfg patent-free in 127 other countries while its the only drug which can be used to treat CV19. THAT will help with the availability of the drug even in the US.
 

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Discussion Starter #373
That first story says a lot. The real numbers are not what Washington wants anyone to hear. It's one of the reasons they're dragging their feet on testing and reporting.

Fauchi's warning is 'unacceptable'.
 

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My office specifically received a memo from the director of the entire department that someone has tested positive for COVID-19. The memo didn't state who it was, but with a skeleton crew currently working and knowing how much people talk, I know we'll find out who it was. But with so few people currently working actively in the office, currently about 30 people though fully staffed we're about 120 people, finding out who it was won't be very difficult to determine.

The email said that the results of this individual were made available yesterday the 13th. We were notified today. I'm sure this person was running around the office long before they started showing symptoms and before they got tested. Assuming a 14 day time period before showing symptoms, a 3 day delay before feeling ill enough to go get tested, and a 4 day delay before results are returned, would mean that this individual could have been asymptomatic since April 22.

The timing of this couldn't come at a worse time for me. I've only been going to work and doing grocery shopping as my only "outing" on an as needed basis. There have been two exceptions, the first was two weeks ago when we went to my in-laws property for a BBQ and it was just the 6 of us there. The second exception was just last night when I went to pick up my mom for a scheduled surgery today. My mom lives 1-1/2hrs from the hospital and I'm only about 20min from the hospital, so logistically, it was best for her to spend the night at my house. Anyway, up until this I had no known COVID-19 exposure, just the one scare my wife had a few weeks back. If I have it now and am asymptomatic, the chances that I gave it to my mom and her being currently asymptomatic are pretty high. Right now, my mom is in her hospital room recovering from this morning's surgery. My mom however, is an overall high risk individual should she contract COVID-19 as she has been in overall poor health for the last few years. I picked up my mom from her house. I drove her the 1-1/2hrs to my house to spend the night. I drove her this morning to the hospital for her surgery. If I am currently asymptomatic, then my mom probably is too. At least if my mom develops any symptoms between now and Sunday (her scheduled release day), she's at the best place to be at; both fortunately and unfortunately.

Finding out who this infected individual was will determine my exposure risk level to this.
 

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Discussion Starter #375
Sorry to hear that. Hopefully you're not in 'close contact' with that individual. I can't believe that 'close contact' now has a technical definition. Wow, how our vocabulary has changed in the past two months.

  • close contact
  • social distancing
  • mask
  • The new normal
I'm sure there are others but I'm too tired now to think of them....
 

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“The new normal” isn’t new ironically. .... things like Turtle friendly paper straws.... lol
These days, I call straws "Turtle killers", after a visit to a local restaurant provided me said vocabulary by my waiter. Said waiter was tipped generously

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk
 

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Economic shutdown due to COVID-19 is creating the need for state budgets to get creative with their budgets. Some of this creative needs are NOT going to be popular.

 

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At work now. Spoke with my supervisor and he states its not anyone on our side of the building. This is hopeful for me from a contagion perspective.
 

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Discussion Starter #380
At work now. Spoke with my supervisor and he states its not anyone on our side of the building. This is hopeful for me from a contagion perspective.
Well, that's good news. One of my co-workers had a similar scare with his wife and her job. She works in a nursing home. Fortunatly her test came back negative.
 
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