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Discussion Starter #721
Typical day in Russia. I give it another year before something is developed, tested and seriously determined to work.

Meanwhile ... the projections here are 400K deaths by year end. I find this number wholly believable for a myriad of reasons.

 

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Q: When will people learn that you can't wish pregnancies and pandemics away?
Seems pretty damn selfish to decide that you can't wait. Just do a civil ceremony and throw a party for family when this is all over.


Bangor Maine Wedding of 65 attendees. A week later, 150 infections, 3 deaths, including outbreaks at a jail and church b/c of attendees
Outline - Read & annotate without distractions

Minnesota Wedding of 275 attendees: 56 cases in 9 counties

They should post details of people to knowingly violate these public health directives and put the country at risk. We are never going to get out of this unless people take things seriously.
 

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Astozenica/Oxford Vaccine Phase 3 trial put on hold b/c of "unexplained illness" triggering a safety review.
It's not published how many people of the 30K were tested so far so even ONE really bad side effect out of a smaller subset than 30K isn't great news.
Also, how do we know it's a bad side effect? Well, it was serious enoug that they paused the trial.

 

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Discussion Starter #724
Yeah, I saw that trial hold this morning. Very interesting.

Going back to the numbers, there was another set of numbers that I saw recently regarding the myth of the "Herd immunity" strategy.

"It is likely that about 65 to 70 percent of a population would need to become infected to achieve heard immunity. In the United States with a population of 328 million, reaching a 65 percent threshold for heard immunity may require 2.13 million deaths, assuming the virus has a 1% fatality rate."
 
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If we were to achieve herd immunity here in the US, how long would it take to achieve this 65% threshold?
 

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Discussion Starter #726
If we were to achieve herd immunity here in the US, how long would it take to achieve this 65% threshold?
It’s a myth. You’re asking how long would it take for a unicorn to lose its rainbow stripes?

But, just for sh!ts and grins, assuming the current projection of 400,000 dead by the end of this year and projecting that out into the future, to get to 2.13 million deaths would take about 5.325 years.
 
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Discussion Starter #727
More Sturgis "Super Spreader" Event numbers. That "conservative estimate" public health price tag is a steep price to pay so that some selfish, middle-aged assholes can get together.

 

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Astozenica/Oxford Vaccine Phase 3 trial put on hold b/c of "unexplained illness" triggering a safety review.
It's not published how many people of the 30K were tested so far so even ONE really bad side effect out of a smaller subset than 30K isn't great news.
Also, how do we know it's a bad side effect? Well, it was serious enoug that they paused the trial.

A few more details about why the phase 3 trial pause came about. Yeah, this isn't as serious as "falling out the window" but its a pretty big concern when your spinal cord starts inflamming and body parts stop working.

The individual also said that a volunteer in the U.K. trial had received a diagnosis of transverse myelitis, an inflammatory syndrome that affects the spinal cord and is often sparked by viral infections. However, the timing of this diagnosis, and whether it was directly linked to AstraZeneca’s vaccine, is still unknown.

 

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Discussion Starter #729
Wow. That's bad. Best wishes to those affected individuals. Thanks for the update.
 

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It’s a myth. You’re asking how long would it take for a unicorn to lose its rainbow stripes?

But, just for sh!ts and grins, assuming the current projection of 400,000 dead by the end of this year and projecting that out into the future, to get to 2.13 million deaths would take about 5.325 years.
I looked into this and basically, it doesn't seem like it's possible w/o a vaccine. Considering how even the more timid of us (aka me) aren't willing to be one of the first to get an unproven vaccine AND we aren't even starting on the anti-vaxxers who will refuse to take even a proven safe covid vaccine, I think it will be a struggle in the US to achieve herd immunity even WITH a vaccine.

Q: How to do you figure 2.13M deaths will get us herd immunity?
Herd immunity in Sweden, a county that never closed down, was only 15% by may when it was predicted to be at 40%. People are taking precautions and that's limiting the spread.

Q: What was it for?
A: 3% of GDP aka roughly a year's worth of growth in a healthy develped economy. Sweden's economy only shrunk by 9% when Eurozone economies shrunk on avg 12%

Q: Was it worth the loss of life?
Personally, I don't think so esp when you calculate the value of each human life (even using actuarial tables).

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Related but independent discussion thread:

Q: How many of you and/or your family have gotten your flu shots or plan to do so?
The flu hasn't gone away even though a higher number of people/kids staying home has reduced the spread pretty dramatically.

IMO, it's worth it to get a flu shot b/c even for your own self-serving needs, getting the flu+covid at the same time must be a truly horrible experience.

Plus, Its free with insurance (thanks ACA aka obamacare) and you can get it with minimal fuss from local pharmacies (no reason to visit a doctor).
 

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Q: How many of you and/or your family have gotten your flu shots or plan to do so?
Got mine last week at the job, my wife will get her's sometime soon.

Joe
 

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Wife and I will probably get ours next weekend. That's the next time we need to go in to get refills. :)
 

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I'll consider getting mine Friday when I go pick up the wife's Norco prescription. Since being a Sam's Plus customer gets me mine for no additional out of pocket.

RwP
 

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The flu vaccine I never take unless it's a requirement for something else, like travel or a medical procedure or something.

That's not to say that I won't take shots for other viral conditions and whatnot. As for the COVID vaccine, if one is ever available, I'll take it. Though, that's not to say that I'll take it when it's first released. I'll wait a while just to see if there are any reports of bad side effects from the vaccine.
 

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I’ve been getting get the flu vaccine the last couple years after finally catching it bad in 2017, never caught it prior since I was a little kid at least. The shot isn’t what bothers me, I dread it because like clockwork my immune response gives me intense flulike symptoms for the following 24hrs.

Given my Covid precautions and new and improved disease avoiding habits the likelihood of contracting it is slimmer than ever, and frankly sitting in the waiting area in Walgreens during a pandemic among potential spreaders that there is no vaccine for, I’m on the fence.
 

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I’ve been getting get the flu vaccine the last couple years after finally catching it bad in 2017, never caught it prior since I was a little kid at least. The shot isn’t what bothers me, I dread it because like clockwork my immune response gives me intense flulike symptoms for the following 24hrs.

Given my Covid precautions and new and improved disease avoiding habits the likelihood of contracting it is slimmer than ever, and frankly sitting in the waiting area in Walgreens during a pandemic among potential spreaders that there is no vaccine for, I’m on the fence.
Walgreens allows you to make an appointment. The website is pretty terrible but I set mine up for one morning, first thing, and was able to be in and out within 5 min. That's where I got my shot. Remember its all about viral load so the staff at any store are more at risk from the customers than the customers are from any other customer.

 

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Apparently AstroZenica's CEO was riffing on an investor call and might have shed some more data than was previously disclosed:
1) Patient who suffered from the spinal inflammation that halted the trials globally a) was a woman, b) confirmed to get the drug vs the placebo (not so good), and c) should be released from the hospital today (good).

2) Other tidbit that is disconcerting is that this might have been the SECOND time the study was halted but that patient was diagnosed with MS so it was deemed unrelated to the vaccines safety/efficacy. If you are not familiar with it, MS is a nerve degenerative disease that seems to have a genetic component AND an environmental trigger. I hope THIS vaccine didn't "activate" the long decline that MS seems to have in patients (I know two women dealing with it).

-g
 

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Discussion Starter #739
I plan to and need to get my flu shot for this winter. I started getting it regularly about three years ago because I spend so much time traveling every fall.

Regarding COVID and 9/11, I read a statistic today stating that there are as many deaths from COVID as were killed on 9/11 every three days in the country. That is, every three days as many die from COVID as were killed on 9/11.

Perspective.
 
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UIUC (university of Illinois, Ubana-Champaigne)'s experience with in-person classes for their 40K student body (bigger university).
1) They are testing their students TWICE A WEEK and are still dealing with flareups b/c kids aren't keeping themselves apart.
2) Willful noncompliance (aka people going into parties KNOWING they were positive) fucked their model up. Yeah, these people exist in more than just zombie movies.



I suspect that in order to get compliance out of selfish Americans, we are going to have to institute criminal penalties for willfully exposing others. NYC has started fining riders on their subways without masks. 37 states already criminalize willful HIV exposure. This may be the next step we need to take to protect society.
 
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