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How do you know higher level careers won’t be replaced by AI? I see absolutely no reason engineering and science is safe.

Personally, I simply refuse to use self checkout or those kiosks at fast food places. It’s even not convenient, scanning and bagging my own groceries? I should get paid for doing that! And there’s always an item that just won’t scan, which necessitates an employee to assist anyway. I don’t know where people are expected to get “experience” when all these jobs disappear. Automation and AI is creating nothing but an uphill slog for coming generations, with absolutely trivial benefits to us at the present.
Higher level careers aren't safe; they are just SAFER than the others. See the apocryphal John Henry vs the engineers to developed the steam drill. Even if JH wasn't a real person, the people who did his job had to learn skills to run the steam drills or take lower paying wages b/c a machine obsoleted their jobs. The folks who did the design work kept working even if the work of 10 laborers could now be done with 5 + a machine.

Even outside of STEM careers, some jobs will be harder to automate and/or demand will remain even if the basic tasks will be automated. For example, a classically trained cuisine chef (sushi/french/whatever) will stay in demand long after a robot replaces a line cook/dishwasher; not that I think that culinary schools are worth the money BUT the skills will be worth money.
 

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Back to COVID-19 talk....

Apparently Chris Christie is entering his second week in the hospital.

New York Post : Chris Christie entering second week in hospital for COVID-19.
 

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Higher level careers aren't safe; they are just SAFER than the others. See the apocryphal John Henry vs the engineers to developed the steam drill. Even if JH wasn't a real person, the people who did his job had to learn skills to run the steam drills or take lower paying wages b/c a machine obsoleted their jobs. The folks who did the design work kept working even if the work of 10 laborers could now be done with 5 + a machine.


Even outside of STEM careers, some jobs will be harder to automate and/or demand will remain even if the basic tasks will be automated. For example, a classically trained cuisine chef (sushi/french/whatever) will stay in demand long after a robot replaces a line cook/dishwasher; not that I think that culinary schools are worth the money BUT the skills will be worth money.
Safer for how long is the question. Centuries? Decades? Years? AI’s promise is to accelerate progress, is it not? So you learn new skills and after getting your degree, suddenly Johnny 5 can make fine cuisine for the business tycoons who are the only ones who can afford it like the best of them. It’s not rocket science.

Problem is the current global population is approx 4.5x that of John Henry’s time and the work he did was extremely dangerous. Automation and AI isn’t just replacing jobs that will cost someone their life and limbs, it’s replacing mundane work that any capable human is capable of doing to put food on the table, and there is less and less frontier on this planet to enterprise on for them to learn new skills on. If all that is left is skilled trades, how many chefs et al do we need? What kind of living will they have with all the competition? Who will be employing them? This push towards absolute maximum efficiency and profit is creating the most elaborate and inescapable poverty trap ever concocted.


Back to COVID-19 talk....

Apparently Chris Christie is entering his second week in the hospital.

New York Post : Chris Christie entering second week in hospital for COVID-19.
Christie clearly acquired one of those cursed monkeys paws where all his wishes all backfire.

39531
 

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39540


39541


Just gave a quote to build a refrigeration system for this $50k "walk in freezer" . Yes, those are racks for up to 60 dead bodies. After this, another freezer with a 100 body cap will be built at another location.
 

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Wow! That's crazy Dan. Getting ready for the fall COVID serge.
 

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Back to the thread - here's some information I found a bit interesting.

Specifically, pick Session 1 at the right. Watch the whole thing, but be DAMN sure to pay attention to 1:01:33 into it.


Then do some math - the infection rate that WHO says is best estimate, the number of humans on the Earth, the number of CoVID-19 deaths.

I HIGHLY recommend doing the math yourself.

RwP
Quick summary for those:
Ralph found in the WHO numbers that they estimate 10% of the world has been infected worldwide, leaving 90% still vulnerable.
7.8B humans = 7,800,000,000.
Number infected 10% = 780M humans
Death rate 1% (in US is closer to 3% but it puts us in the ballpark) = 7.8M deaths
Confirmed covid deaths worldwide = 1.08M

  • Now, some people might continue to claim that this just proves that its far less dangerous than expected (aka death rate is <1%).
  • I believe the more logical explanation will be borne out once we see global excess mortality statistics. Problem is that we only have that for a small # of countries globally. The # of deaths which cannot be attributed to normal deaths will exceed the 1.08M confirmed deaths.
 

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JNJ paused their phase 3 trial because of a patient reaction. Its gonna be a while before we have a vaccine.

 

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Wow. Yeah, not surprised. Figuring out this virus is very difficult... not as easy or simple as some politicans want people to believe.
 

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Eli Lilly phase 3 trial has been paused for safety concerns. Not much data yet but this one is a monoclonal antibody (like the camel antibodies discussed a few months ago and like Regeneron). This treatment was based on the blood of one of the first recovered patients. Not sure if it also used fetal stem cells like Regeneron but you gotta grow the antibodies somewhere.


Initial promising results
 

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  • The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits rose to a two-month high last week, stoking fears the COVID-19 pandemic was inflicting lasting damage to the labor market.
  • Though the claims report showed a decline in the number of people on unemployment rolls in early October, economists said that was because many people had exhausted their eligibility for benefits, which are limited to six months in most states.
  • When unemployment spiked in March and April, most of the job losses were temporary layoffs or furloughs. But that is beginning to change. The number of people reporting they had been permanently let go rose to 3.8 million in September, nearly twice as many as at the height of the pandemic in April.

I pushed a little more into SQQQ today.

New article on K vs V shaped recovery. More pretty charts
 

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On covid and higher ed

UF Gators (origin of gatorade) coach wanted 90K fans at their next game but his team has now tested positive for covid.

66% of colleges surveyed reported enrollment drops in 2020. Freshman enrollment is down 16%.
  • What is surprising to me is that CC enrollment is dropping. If I was 18 again and stuck in this situation where I couldn't go to school in person (or it was too risky for me to do so given my family situation), I might just take more virtual classes in CC vs at the 4-year uni to knock them out and save my family $$$.
  • Also, it seems that graduate enrollment is down. Usually, grad enrollment climbs when the economy is bad and jobs are harder to find as its a place for the smart kids to go to increase their earning power if they cannot get a great job out of undergrad.
  • It seems that the economic situation of the parents is affecting 40% of those who chose not to attend in Fall 2020.
  • I'm curious as to what these kids are doing.
 

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They're probably taking gig jobs to support themselves and/or their out of work parents. When times get tough families hunker down.
 
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2 campaign staff for Harris tested positive today (flight crew and comm dir). We'll see if it spreads through the Dems as much as it did the GOP. Considering the Dems actually seem to be wearing masks, I have my suspicions as to the likely outcome.
 

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Several threads are somewhat blended together whilst different enough to warrant their own thread. Not being sure which thread this should go in, I'm placing it in this one:

 

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What's crazy is that Mitch leads McGrath by a substantial margin. These are people voting for a guy who has put his own interests above his state for years.

He's actually pretty gleeful about stopping stimulus funding. One person should never have this much power.
 

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Mitch is as sick and dangerous as trump. The damage that the two of them have done to our republic is irreparable.
 
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