I think you answered your own question.
I'd have to agree with you: "I can't imagine their share price going back up after all this is over."
1) A lot of auto insurance companies are returning some premiums b/c they are NOT having to pay out as much b/c of the significant drop in driving during the pandemic.What are your guys' thoughts on insurance giant, AIG? I / We all know they were hit hard in the Great Recession of 2008 - 2009 and required a massive bailout back then followed with a massive restructure. Up until the March crash, their share price seemed pretty steady at ~$55 +/- a few dollars. Now with everything going on now, their share price is half of that. I can't imagine their share price going back up after all this is over.
One argument is that post pandemic, driving will go up b/c noone will take public transport unless they have to. That will be good for the insurance business as a whole but I don't think that automotive insurance underwriting specifically contributes a significant amount to AIG as a whole.
4) On the insurance market in general, it seems that there is pressure to get insurers to pay out to people impacted by the pandemic/lockdown. That won't be good for their bottom line.
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Insurance regulators across the country have enacted emergency regulations, issued administrative guidance, and requested carriers to take certain...
I've also read that some companies insurers are pushing non-renewals because they don't want to be on the hook with dwindling cash reserves. I haven't found that article again but I see that several states have imposed a moratorium on policy cancellations (CA, WV, etc).
All of this can't be good for a business that prides themselves on more certainty (aka we collect $1M in insurance premiums, pay out 60% in claims, and keep the rest for their operating expenses/profit).
3) Finally, Look at what AIG owns. I don't know enough to judge their business but they are in the british mortgage market and own the worlds larger aircraft leasing company (that won't be a booming business for a while). You should read their financial reports and see what they say about future risks.
Bottom line: no opinion just yet on AIG specifically