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I bought quite a bit of TSLA at ~745 back in March right before the COVID crash. After it dropped I sunk the rest of my cash into it, picking up 5 more shares at $400 on 17 March. I'm so happy with TSLA. Part of that rapid price climb last week is continued (another) short squeeze as they lose out again on an earnings call. TSLA is a force to be reckoned with.

They are so much more than a car maker. Ultimately TSLA will be another Trillion dollar company a la Apple or Amazon. That is what they're looking at.

S&P 500 index inclusion is right around the corner for TSLA (pending S&P 500 Committee approval) and that is also driving the price up.

They are selling all the zero emission vehicle (ZEV) credits that they accumulate as a by-product of their sales to ICE manufactures (Covered at 4:30 in the video below). For example, Fiat-Chrysler has an agreement to buy some 2 Billion dollars worth of ZEV credits from Tesla!
1) I'm glad you got in on TSLA. I was hesitant to jump in at that price point (was hoping for a sub $600 drop which never happened)
2) They are so much more than a car maker. Sure, they make batteries as well. That doesn't explained thier market cap vs the #1 battery maker and the #1 auto maker.
3) S&P500 inclusion. That might boost them but i personally think that's already priced in.
4) $2B of ZEV credits sounds like an astounding amount of free money BUT you need to think about it in terms of the # of shares (185.48M) = $10.78 per share. That's a drop on the bucket compared to their share price and this paper napkin calc doesn't include the PV of this future revenue stream (its not like FCA is cutting a check to Elon for $2B tomorrow). Now, I would also question adding a multiplier to this number since they can only sell the credits they generate. Even if someone w/o a good EV story (I dunno, Mercedes maybe) wants to buy credits, TSLA can only sell as many as they have cars. Which isn't much.

Bottom LIne: I think TSLA has value. Just not $224B of value. Amazon is worth $1.5T. Considering how much I and others have spent with them in the last 7 months, I'm not inclined to disagree with this valuation.
-g
 

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I'm with you, the valuation is high (for now).

1. Thank you. It did drop under $600 back in Mid-March into early April during the COVID market crash. Like I said, I picked up 5 shares on the 17th for $400.
2. Well, nothing the market ever does is rational. So there's that ... They also make Trucks (Semi and Cyber) and they're working on delivery vans as discussed previously.
3. No other company (at this time) does self driving as well as Tesla
4. Tesla is continuing to develop and refine their solar roof program. Revision 3 according to this article from June of last year.


Sorry, I don't have more time right now to dig into this response. Time to go back to work.
 

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Don't take my word for it, a JMP Securities Analyst had this to say today.

""We believe that the question to be considered is not whether the stock is expensive on current valuation measures, but what the company's growth and competitive position signal about the stock's potential for the next several years," JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha wrote in a client note. Tesla's annual sales could hit $100 billion by 2025, he predicted. "

 

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Don't take my word for it, a JMP Securities Analyst had this to say today.

""We believe that the question to be considered is not whether the stock is expensive on current valuation measures, but what the company's growth and competitive position signal about the stock's potential for the next several years," JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha wrote in a client note. Tesla's annual sales could hit $100 billion by 2025, he predicted. "

I believe you are 100% bullish on TSLA. My worry is that it seems like the poster child of meme stocks and everyone wants a piece.
Here's another one that just popped up on my radar today as eTrade was offering them in their IPO center.

Prospectus

Quhuo is a on-demand services delivery business (SW infrastructure). IPO range $9-11/share.
The delivery for Meituan, Ele.me, and KFC, mobike in the bike sharing industry, and Didi in the ride hailing, and Anxin home for housing rental.
  • The food delivery biz from those three players accounts for 96% of their revenue.
  • Meituan and Ele.me account for 95% of the market share in food delivery.
  • Typical shady Chinese company: Industry customers may also terminate business relationships with us due to contractual disputes. For example, we had a dispute with a major industry customer as we extracted and downloaded operating data from its system by using certain technical means not permitted by such customer. We also acquired customer relationships from other service providers of certain major industry customers without seeking their prior written consent. We rectified these issues, settled the disputes privately and maintained our business relationship with these industry customers. We have since enhanced our internal control measures and improved our communication with industry customers to avoid any inadvertent misunderstandings or disputes with our industry customers in the future. We cannot assure you, however, that these industry customers will not sue us for past disputes or that we will not be perceived to breach our contractual obligations, should similar incidents occur in the future. As our industry customers typically have strong bargaining power in imposing or interpreting the terms of our business relationships, we also cannot assure you that our current business practice would not expose us or our business partners to risks of contractual disputes. Should any new disputes arise in the future, we could be subject to penalties imposed by our industry customers, which may include monetary compensation, modification of delivery areas and up to termination of business relationships with us.
I'm not in love with them but it will be interesting to see how this one grows.
Even here in the US, food delivery is up and its even more widespread in China.
-g
 

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You're right. I am 100% bullish on TSLA. I appreciate your counterpoints. I really do. They're valid points. And yes, it is the poster child of FOMO overvalued stocks. Your points and concerns are valid. I need to set a stop loss to lock in profits should things turn south.

It's going to be a very interesting month for TSLA right up until their Q2 Earnings report on the 22nd or 29th. I was looking around tonight and saw that days after closing the second quarter Tesla trolled the short sellers by selling "Short Shorts". Have you seen these? The description is hilarious. Following Elon's previous patterns of sending hidden messages to shareholders (To skirt SEC regulations) this can be seen as another hidden message of a blow out quarter on the horizon. Oddly enough this may be one of the reasons for the epic June stock climb. Not to mention that the S3XY across the back are the TESLA model names. What great humor! I wonder how long he's dreaming that one up! LOL

Tesla Short Shorts


Speaking of AMZN. I looked at AMZN again this evening and was pleasantly surprised to see it had broken 3K a share. I have a few shares of AMZN free and clear after selling enough back in January of '18 to cover my initial investment. In hindsight I wish I'd have held all of the shares.

I can't believe there's an opportunity for a DoorDash, GrubHub or Uber Eats rip off in China. Thanks for the tip. It's worth watching.

I believe the only reason food delivery in the US is up is because of the in-restaurant dining closures due to the pandemic. However, at this rate, restaurants aren't going to be reopening for dine-in any time soon.

Am I mistaken or didn't you say you were not a fan of Chinese stocks?

The only Chinese stock I hold is BABA. I'm currently up an average of 62% on my BABA holdings.
 

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Am I mistaken or didn't you say you were not a fan of Chinese stocks?

The only Chinese stock I hold is BABA. I'm currently up an average of 62% on my BABA holdings.
I'm not. I hold Alibaba, Baidu, and tencent through some of my ETFs. My biggest concern is their financial transparency isn't anywhere near the level of a US or EU based company. There can also be shadiness fostered by their management.
Just look and luckin coffee overstating their earnings. Also, these examples

Hell, this one admitted to settling for stealing data they shouldn't have from one of their partners. Who does that?

Im not sure I would want this is my portfolio long term..
All that being said, I see the potential of this one to be a meme stock. I need to validate this with some friends in China.

-g
 

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I've heard of KFC (obviously), that the chinese use cheap labor delivery for everything, and Didi is the chinese ver of Uber/Lyft. What this article mentioned was that ele.me is Alibaba's food delivery service.
 

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Speaking of BABA they've had quite the run since July 1, up from $215 to 260.

Going back to TESLA, here are 7 key advantages that Tesla has that puts them head and shoulders above any potential competition.

  1. An inspiring and clear critical mission - that they've stuck to and completed.
  2. Elon Musk - A creative, forward thinking and disruptive CEO the likes of Steve Jobs and Tony Stark (Yeah, Tony is fictional. Elon is the real life version)
  3. TSLA Battery Supremacy
    • The longest range battery of any EV manufacturer
    • The fastest accelerating EV's of any EV manufacturer
    • Has over a decade of experience in battery pack manufacture, integration, battery software, thermal management and the most EV battery data
  4. Software Supremacy - TSLA is a software and energy company NOT a vehicle manufacturing or solar company. Comparisons to ICE vehicle manufactures is missing the big picture. At present their two biggest technologies are software and batteries. They've been able to extend the range of their vehicles, improve braking performance and improved acceleration of their vehicles with over the air updates. No other ICE or EV manufacturer has been able to do this. They're eating the lunch of peaker power plants. They've helped businesses and consumers monetize their battery assets.
  5. Autonomy - Tesla has won Autonomy. No other vehicle manufacture is even close. Their fleet and data is growing exponentially. Data is how self driving will be won. Tesla has over 3Billion miles of data. The next closest company has only 1% of that data. Tesla is using neural net AI and cameras while others are foolishly using LIDAR. Tesla is "Very Close" to Level 5 Autonomy. Tesla 'very close' to level 5 autonomous driving technology, Musk says
  6. Engineering Talent - In a 2019 graduate survey Tesla was a top choice of the best of the best Engineering graduates - right behind SpaceX. Tesla has their choice of engineering talent. In 2008-2009 when Boeing, NASA, Lockheed Martin, etc. were letting go of talent Tesla was hiring them up.
  7. Tesla's Secret Army: Their fans (worldwide) are selling Teslas by word of mouth saving Tesla millions on advertising. In fact, Tesla hasn't spent a dime on advertising. Tesla's are so good they sell themselves. Where possible, Tesla is selling direct to consumers eliminating the "good old boy" middle-man-markup stealership network.
Other factors:
  • Meaningfully superior products
  • Vertical Integration
  • Industry leading AI Chip
  • Cultural Logic and Reason
  • Unique corporate structure
  • Cross sell and up-sell opportunities
  • Feedback loop in reaching sustainable profitability.
Source:

 
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Discussion Starter #389
Elon Musk is legit my hero.
 

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1) Check your mortgages. Rates dropped again. I track 30yr fixed jumbo loans and the refi rate is now 3.375% with my credit union (4.25% for investment property). Its worth it for me to REFI

2) QH (the chinese SW company that powers the top food delivery and other company, just started trading. eTrade was able to place some shares with me @ the IPO price of $10. It's started trading today and went up to $20.xx now. We will see if it sustains this price (bid ask is at $20.90/$20.92) or if people take their profits. Its a shame I wasn't placed enough shares for this to make much of a difference in my life (received 33% of the shares I wanted to place).

Hrm. This one might require a little more monitoring. Apparently, this type of security (ADS) doesn't allow for tstops.
 

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Thanks Gunn.
 

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My overall portfolio grew 1% from 7/1 to 7/15. This is with ONLY 40% in the still in the equities market. This truly baffles me.
We've already discussed TSLA to exhaustion.

So who wants to bet against the mouse? DIS opened up their theme parks in Florida.
-g
 

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I'd bet against the mouse. Not as a short though. I don't play options. Yeah, reopening their parks/mall will only lead to more spread. I wonder if their guests have to sign a waiver or there's a COVID disclaimer in the ticket fine print now. Like the Trumpsters had to agree not to sue before attending his Tulsa rally.

My DIS target would be 90 to 100.
 

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Selling DIS Cash covered Puts

Q: How far does your crystal ball look into the future and how much do you want to own 100 shares of Disney

My pick would probably be:
8/21/20 - $95 strike APY 6.45% if you don't get assigned the shares
Gets you $355 premium - commission = $354 for tying up $9500



9/18 - $95 strike APY 6.74% (not sure if that's worth it)
9/18 - $100 strike APY 9.21%

10/16 - $90 strike APY 5.32%
10/16 - $95 strike APY 7.02%

Jan 15 - $90 strike APY 6.04%
Jan 16 - $95 strike APY 7.45%
 

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I'm sorry Gunn. I know nothing about options.
 

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I'm sorry Gunn. I know nothing about options.
It's really not hard. Cash secured puts are the easiest to understand

1) You have an idea of how much you want to pay for DIS post drop. You then can see how much someone will pay you for your commitment (and locking your cash) to buy 100 shares at $90 or whatever ($9k).

The math is how much that premium is worth in terms of time. If an option was exactly 1 year away and paid $9, one contract would pay $900 which for locking up $9k would be 10% APY return.
If an option paid $9 but the expiration was 6 months away, the return would be 20% APY return.

That's how you compare options. The owner of the put you sold keeps any dividend while they wait for the price to drop. They don't want it to drop but it's insurance for them.
You don't really care. If it drops, you get the stock at a price you deem fair. If it goes up, you keep the premium.

2) if you want to own the stock at the current price, you can just buy it now. However, as we started discussing, DIS seems in for a dip as they open up.

FWIW, it seems like even crazy Floridians aren't packing DW. Some are going but it's not crazy.
 

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Interesting. I really need to put some effort into understanding Calls, Puts, etc.

i guess I'd go for the 8/21 strike that was your top pick. I'd imagine by then things will be bad enough that even FL will shut down again. This whole "controlling the data power grab" is going to skew the real numbers though. The hospitals will tell the real story though when they back refrigerated trucks up to the back doors like they did in NYC back in April and May. This administration is just unbelievable.


 

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Interesting. I really need to put some effort into understanding Calls, Puts, etc.
Same here. My one investor friend has made TENS OF THOUSANDS of dollars just this year. He started his stocks thing about this time last year with only $500. I'm super jelly of him, lol.

i guess I'd go for the 8/21 strike that was your top pick. I'd imagine by then things will be bad enough that even FL will shut down again. This whole "controlling the data power grab" is going to skew the real numbers though. The hospitals will tell the real story though when they back refrigerated trucks up to the back doors like they did in NYC back in April and May.
See my post in the COVID thread.
 

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Same here. My one investor friend has made TENS OF THOUSANDS of dollars just this year. He started his stocks thing about this time last year with only $500. I'm super jelly of him, lol.



See my post in the COVID thread.
Awesome for your friend.

Yeah, Florida will be following AZ and TX soon ... if they're not already there.

My wife just got off the phone with her brother who lives in Florida. He says everything down there is open like nothing is wrong. He's even going to the gym. It's crazy! He's crazy!
 
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