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I mean what are the real alternatives? The Nissan Leaf? Chevy Bolt? Tesla make the only EVs that aren’t awful penalty boxes or half assed compliance cars. Same reason resale is decent is the same reason the company took off - the public wants a car that’s desirable, regardless of propulsion
 

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Yeah, except your swing is at least 10 times larger than mine. 😂

On the plus side my GM and F stocks are making gains. They are much more stable.
 

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I have a little bit of F too.
 

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TM:
Did you lock in any of your gains from before? or just riding up and down?

With this kind of dip, TSLA puts @ my target strike price ($140) have become a bit more lucrative. 7-8% APY
Each contract ties up $14k of cash... which is reasonable.

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NKLA just popped 50% on news GM bought 11% and will produce the badger
1) GM gets $2B stake in exchange for making a truck.
2) Who wants to bet that the badger will be a brand engineered Hummer truck (aka different logos+panels)? it's all GM tech (battery and fuel cell). This is like a pizza shop opening up, making a billion dollars by using an app instead of taking phone calls, and then buying the pizza from Dominos to fulfill orders. Unbelievable.
3) GM also gets like 80% of the credits generated by NKLA "sales" (if they ever happen). Realistically, they could have gotten 100% by selling the same vehicle with a HUMMER badge instead of NKLA.
People should be embarrassed about this bait and switch but The guy who engineered this house of cards and deal deserves admiration. This is madoff level fuckery.

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As crazy as things are going, I think we should open up a poll on 2020 Worst Case Scenarios.
 

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I'm in for the ride. I should have taken profit on my last purchase when it went to $500 (I've made 3 TSLA purchases). I'm still up on the first two purchases and I'm down ~ 8% on the third purchase now.

Wow, that's a low strike @ $140. I don't see TSLA dropping below $200. I currently have a buy order pending at $250 (A 50% retracement from the $500 high). $140 would be a 72% drop. I expect to see a floor of support develop around $275.

The miss on S&P inclusion this time around hurt them, but I believe they will eventually be included.

I saw the NKLA news. I'm really surprised about that one. I'm with you on #2. It'll be a rebadged Hummer or the like. So true about #3! Pretty shady stuff for sure!
 

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Very interesting long form research piece by an short seller analyst titled:
Nikola: How to Parlay An Ocean of Lies Into a Partnership With the Largest Auto OEM in America


It's similar to how short sellers uncovered Luckin coffee accounting discrepencies, fraud with edutech company GSX using bots to inflate their student numbers, etc.
 

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Some Gems:
* We reveal how, in the face of growing skepticism over the functionality of its truck, Nikola staged a video called “Nikola One in Motion” which showed the semi-truck cruising on a road at a high rate of speed. Our investigation of the site and text messages from a former employee reveal that the video was an elaborate ruse—Nikola had the truck towed to the top of a hill on a remote stretch of road and simply filmed it rolling down the hill.

* Trevor has appointed his brother, Travis, as “Director of Hydrogen Production/Infrastructure” to oversee this critical part of the business. Travis’s prior experience looks to have largely consisted of pouring concrete driveways and doing subcontractor work on home renovations in Hawaii.


* The company’s Nikola One “reveal” was a total farce. We corroborate Bloomberg’s earlier work debunking Trevor’s claims regarding its semi-truck that “this thing fully functions and works…this is a real truck” and provide new evidence.

* We present behind-the-scenes photos showing that Nikola had an electricity cable snaked up from underneath the stage into the truck in order to falsely claim the Nikola One’s electrical systems fully functioned.

*Trevor: “We’ve Assembled One of the Best Teams in the World”. Nikola’s Chief Engineer: A Background Largely in Software Development and Pinball Machine Repair

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I dunno how quickly it will take for the wheels to fall off this bus so a standard strategy of buying a put doesn't make much sense to me. There are too many idiots with vested interest in this one for it to crater like it should.
I'm glad I got out with a few bucks AND didn't jump back in.
 

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I forgot if I posted this here yet but I feel it merits discussion.
1) By most people's accounts, with a median income of $96K per household, SF is a wealthy city. Therefore even if young folks are moving out in droves (why pay $2K to rent a bedroom if there's limited placed to go out when you could work from your parents home rent-free), you would expect people to have money to spend on takeout. There are outside dining options but with the wildfires and the fog rolling in soon, we are losing a good chunk of "summer" in SF (typically Sept is the hottest month). I don't think its advisable to eat out, but I can understand why some young folks choose to do so.

2) According to payment processing data provided by CC companies, SF restaurant sales YoY are DOWN 84% from July 2019 vs July 2020

3) That number is even MORE astounding when you also learn that 51.5% of all restaurants have had no transactions since March. This means that even for the <50% of them that remain open, they are only getting a fraction of the business they had prepandemic.


Even if you subtract out tourists (which there are none currently and they typically add 10% to our city revenue), this is in a wealthy city where a lot of the people who remain in SF could afford to eat out if they chose to do so.

I do believe SF will bounce back but I wonder how other cities, even ones where people don't take covid as seriously are faring.

-g
 

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"Summer in SF" is like 75 degrees. 😂

I don't know, but the other day I was waiting in a socially distanced line outside Chipotle for a pickup order and about 15 idiots walked up asking "is this the line for pick up ??"
 

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Elon's stock vesting could come at the expense of the company's accounting profits... Which could delay TSLAs inclusion in the S&P500. If these additional tranches vest at the expense of claiming profitability in Q3-2020, he wins, and retail investors who bid the stock up to these crazy heights don't.

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Saw this one as well since some of you folks hold BA vs EADSY
Apparently the 787 has some structural issues around gaps opening up between the fuselage and the vertical tailfin.
They will likely require an inspection of all 787s but if this issue is as widespread, well, all 787s in service would need to be grounded and be fixed (981 delivered). In comparison, only 387 737-MAX planes were delivered (and then grounded). So this could potentially be a biggest issue if it was more than a single bad

8 grounded by end of Aug, entire fleet under scrutiny.
 

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No better time than the present to inspect and retrofit them if necessary. Half the aircraft in the world are grounded anyway because of the pandemic.
 

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No better time than the present to inspect and retrofit them if necessary. Half the aircraft in the world are grounded anyway because of the pandemic.
Yeah, I don't see this is a crazy issue for airlines but more as a problem for Boeing. My flights with a 787 have been pretty nice. I appreciate the windows, the higher humidity, and the lower effective altitude (6K feet vs 10K IIRC).

Here's an article on when the airline industry expects to recover. We'll be holding onto our shares for a while. :)
 

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Wow 2028! Eight years! That's crazy. I was hoping for 2022 or 2024 at the latest.
 

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Wow 2028! Eight years! That's crazy. I was hoping for 2022 or 2024 at the latest.
This consensus has me thinking I will dump my EADSY if it gets back up to my cost basis. I'm currently -6% there. If the recovery is that far away, even though its a tiny portion of my investments, I'm not doing myself any favors by parking it there. I may then decide to buy back in during the future dip I'm planning for.
 

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Music is stopping guys. Those of you with market exposure, at least consider putting in trailing stops to capture some of your winnings.

 

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True. Thanks for the link. I was looking at the market this morning. I'll have to come back to it tonight. I've got family stuff to do today.
 

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As an NVDA stock holder this headline caught my eye tonight. $40B!!! Holy Sh!t!! I don't even know what Arm Holdings does! I've got to look it up.

 
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