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As an NVDA stock holder this headline caught my eye tonight. $40B!!! Holy Sh!t!! I don't even know what Arm Holdings does! I've got to look it up.

Arm designs the proccessor architecture that underpins almost every mobile processor and most of the embedded (aka non PF) designs. The Apple CPUs are based on the arm architecture but they took an architectural license years ago.

The challenge here is that if NVIDIA owns ARM, will they also license out their best designs to their competitors? Did ferrari sell their best engines to customers? All the other players know this. Hence, I think the big winner in the embedded space will be SIFIVE and the RISCV architecture.
 

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Thanks for the break down and analysis. I was just researching this. (y)

Do you hold any NVDA?
 

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Thanks for the break down and analysis. I was just researching this. (y)

Do you hold any NVDA?
No. Its a good company but overpriced. I might look at the options chain next week but more than likely I will just wait until the next dip
 

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My average cost basis is $104. I last bought some NVDA in May of 2018. I'm curious how this acquisition will affect the price.
 

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Arm processors power pretty much every smartphone and a ton of other devices.

As an IP company, they are probably the biggest in the world. Margins are higher on IP licensing than silicon but I think the competitors to Nvidia will move away from them.

NVIDIA will gain a ton of processor engineers.. probably the biggest group outside of AMD or Intel (with maybe Apple being a potential 3rd contender). ARM has moved into the server space as well so this aligns with nvidias future plans. Nvidias costs drop since they will be paying royalties to themselves for every Tegra soc they make now (NVIDIA -> ARM -> NVIDIA). I dunno if the companies who took architectural licenses still have to pay arm. Any normal processor license deal would have a royalty component (you pay per chip you design and then a royalty per chip you sell) but architectural licenses are basically "you take the design and you can make it your own". Whether or not you have to pay a royalty for an architectural design is TBD. I would think so (any house built on from my blueprints used my blueprints as a basis so you should still need to pay me but i don't know.) What I DO expect is that noone who competes with NVIDIA today would take a future ARM license.

From 2015 announcement: The company has seven publicly announced 64-bit architectural licensees: Applied Micro, Broadcom, Cavium, Apple, Huawei, Nvidia, AMD and Samsung. It also has another seven publicly announced 32-bit architectural licensees, of which five – Marvell, Microsoft, Qualcomm, Intel and Faraday – do not have a 64-bit licence.

At one time, apple had owned a chunk of arm so I don't know if they got a sweetheart deal or not. Whatever the deal may be, as Apple makes more chips with arm inside for their laptops and not just their iPads and phones, this could be either good for Nvidia or revenue neutral.
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Can nvidia justify the $40b cost? I dunno. It's good for soft bank though. SoftBank paid $31b for them in 2016 (NOT including the roughly $1B/yr they got out of ARM during their ownership tenure that's a roughly 6.5% APY rate of return). Gives them more cash to waste on things like the next wework or OTM calls. They hit clear homeruns before (buying into Alibaba - $20M became $60B, Vodaphone Japan w/ exclusive iPhone distribution in Japan, etc)
IMO, their $100B Vision Fund is like the one guy at a poker table with enough chips to push all the small players around. Just their willingness to outspend other companies gives them leverage on one startup vs another. Not sure if they've had many blockbuster successes in the last 5 years though so this one is probably the best key example.
 

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Intel's LinkedIn acct was "throwing shade" on NVIDIA by posting a link to this article.

One thing the article mentions that I didn't know is that the data centre is NVIDIA's biggest business unit (including their highspeed networking acquitision Mellanox).. overtaking GPUs.
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DKNG jumped 17% b/c of a deal with ESPN. I'm sure their revenue and market penetation will climb w/ sports being played again... as long as sports can continue to be played.
 

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...

One thing the article mentions that I didn't know is that the data centre is NVIDIA's biggest business unit (including their highspeed networking acquitision Mellanox).. overtaking GPUs.
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DKNG jumped 17% b/c of a deal with ESPN. I'm sure their revenue and market penetation will climb w/ sports being played again... as long as sports can continue to be played.
Yeah, when their data centre is not busy they mine bitcoins as a side gig. 😁
 

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It the start of the coronavirus pandemic, nearly 40% of low-income workers lost their jobs in March or early April, as many restaurants, stores, and tourism hot spots shut down to slow the spread of the virus. Over that same time period, only 13% of workers earning an income above $100,000 were laid off, according to the Federal Reserve.
Recent job cut announcements by companies clearly indicate, however, that more white-collar jobs are on the chopping block.



As R&D spending by companies like Ford get cut, you will see wider waves with their suppliers as well.
 

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More on pandemic recovery: Southwest CEO says it will take a decade for business travel to recover.
 

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Two big IPOs today: Snowflake and JFrog
1) Snowflake: i read on what they do and I'm still not 100% sure how they differentiate. They offer data warehousing and analytics tools that run on top of cloud services (Amazon, Azure, and Google Cloud).

Since most companies (aka most Snowflake customers) will focus on ONE cloud provider, what's to stop Amazon, Azure, and Google from building their own tools and obsoleting this company?
I don't get it.

2) JFROG handles SW repository management. The idea is that you trust this archive to hold binaries of all your libraries/components across multiple SW languages. It allows revision control across multiple SW languages and projects... i guess. It's not clear to me as a non-SW person why this doesn't already exist with modern revision control systems (the mechanisms by which multiple engineers write, check-in, and check-out blocks of code.

Both went 2x @ IPO today.
My bottom line thought: How many investors really understand enough about what they do to be convinced that these companies will continue to grow?
 

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Wow, that movement on SNOW is crazy. +111% on opening day. Yeah, it's crazy .... reminds me of the heydays of the dot com bubble.
 

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I got a buy recommendation today from one of the stock advisors that I subscribe to for (BAND).

At the roulette table, I put some more money on Red ... I mean TSLA ahead of their Battery day announcement on Tuesday.
 
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I got a buy recommendation today from one of the stock advisors that I subscribe to for (BAND).

At the roulette table, I put some more money on Red ... I mean TSLA ahead of their Battery day announcement on Tuesday.
BAND went from $137 to $150-155 in a single day. I haven't read a good explanation why.
Q: Has anyone else noticed an incrase in the number of robo-written articles when you google a lot of stocks/ETF/funds recently (I hesitate to call them AI-written b/c the algo isn't really smart -- it just writes articles based on numbers that can be scraped from other websites).

These all read like they were machine written as there's no real factual "meat" -- just statistics.


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I had 7 put positions expire today OTM. I already put the ones on NIO, TSLA, and DKNG back in play (Nov and Dec expiration) but the money I had previously allocated to broader indexes (VTI, IVV, and VOO) won't earn me enough premium (<5% equivalent APY) to justify the risk. I'm likely going to leave these funds on the sidelines for the rest of election season.

It will be interesting to see what finally tips the next downward plunge: pandemic event, more unemployment news, military crisis, or maybe the election results and/or fallout.
Unfortunately, it does seem like the stock market is immune to news about the first two.
 

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BAND went from $137 to $150-155 in a single day. I haven't read a good explanation why.
Q: Has anyone else noticed an increase in the number of robo-written articles when you google a lot of stocks/ETF/funds recently (I hesitate to call them AI-written b/c the algo isn't really smart -- it just writes articles based on numbers that can be scraped from other websites).

These all read like they were machine written as there's no real factual "meat" -- just statistics.
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I had 7 put positions expire today OTM. I already put the ones on NIO, TSLA, and DKNG back in play (Nov and Dec expiration) but the money I had previously allocated to broader indexes (VTI, IVV, and VOO) won't earn me enough premium (<5% equivalent APY) to justify the risk. I'm likely going to leave these funds on the sidelines for the rest of election season.

It will be interesting to see what finally tips the next downward plunge: pandemic event, more unemployment news, military crisis, or maybe the election results and/or fallout.
Unfortunately, it does seem like the stock market is immune to news about the first two.
Yes, there are a LOT of robo written articles out there about every company. It's so much fill in the blank with the various numbers and stats for each company. I hate it. I can look at charts and see the numbers I don't need an AI written article to tell me what I can see.

The single day move in BAND was probably caused by this recommendation. Since I'm a subscriber I won't reveal my source but, In short BAND was recommended for these reasons:
  • With a market cap of only $3.4 billion and trailing revenue of $267.8 million, Bandwidth has a lot of space to grow into.
  • They have "last-mover advantage." Thanks to the huge telecom wipe out that followed the bursting of the dotcom bubble in the early 2000s, then the financial crisis several years later, the company was able to amass a network of around 70 million telephone numbers that it can assign to voice over internet protocol (VoIP) calls.
  • They count some major companies as happy customers including: RingCentral, Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) — Google became one of the company's first large customers when it started its VoIP service, Google Voice, back in 2009. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is another longtime customer — when you call over Skype, you're calling over Bandwidth's network. But don't think that Bandwidth is limited to older legacy products. Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ: ZM) uses Bandwidth for its voice calling and conferencing, too. And these are not the only happy users — the company reports a 97% customer satisfaction rate.
  • Solid leadership.
  • It is "Silicon Valley's phone company," because it controls tens of millions of phone numbers it can provision in real time for use in internet-based voice functions. Combined with software, the company is letting customers easily integrate voice or text into their own software, and we only see demand rising. For all that, it remains a relatively small company today.
Meanwhile on my favorite company; this is a great natural selection analogy on the automotive industry and it's latest Alpha predator by my favorite "fanboy".

Anyway, this commentary is backed up with commentary by Sandy Munro who has serious auto industry creds.

 
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Discussion Starter #596

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I always knew NKLA was vaporware.

NKLA = Theranos

There's no way I was going anywhere near that.
 

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I always knew NKLA was vaporware.

NKLA = Theranos

There's no way I was going anywhere near that.
I don't think Trevor stepping back will save this company. There's simply no assets besides a pile of cash (what the SPAC had before). Oh, I suppose their photoshop guy is still employed.

The only "dangerous" thing I did this week was sell a few NIO puts @ $14.50.
This is a bit high for what I want to buy into NIO at but
a) It's a real company, with a real car, that actually sells in China.
b) There's also a battery lease program that people actually use.
c) I got 7c/share for selling the puts that will expire this Friday. that doesn't sound like much but that comes out to an APY of 44%; a surprising amount but kind of logical given the risk.
d) Delta says there's a 97% chance this stock will expire worthless (good for me)

I totally get that I'm flirting with assignment on this one given the volatility of NIO and that NIO seems to follow TSLA and if TSLA offers underwhelming news with battery day, NIO might dip alongside TSLA. Whether or not they dip an additional 18% is TBD. Current dip seems to come from NIO taking some of the cash generated by their US-entity and paying back on of their strategic chinese investors (Jianheng New Energy Fund).

If I get the stock, I'll hold it and wheel it.
 

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I always knew NKLA was vaporware.

NKLA = Theranos

There's no way I was going anywhere near that.
You know what is strange .. My cousin was dispatched to Theranos at the beginning of the year, before everything shut down. I am not sure why they would need additional process piping at their Palo Alto facility. He did not watch the Out for Blood documentary until after the job was finished.
 
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