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You know what is strange .. My cousin was dispatched to Theranos at the beginning of the year, before everything shut down. I am not sure why they would need additional process piping at their Palo Alto facility. He did not watch the Out for Blood documentary until after the job was finished.
You could argue that Theranos was a more insidious scam; they actually made it sound like their tech worked and then spent $$$$ trying to make it work but never stuck with any project long enough to bring it to fruition.

NKLA of course just used photoshop, a shovel, and gravity. Its unclear that they had any real plans to make ANY of their projects actually work.
Q: Does this factory site look like a place where someone is trying to build in a hurry? Of course not, it looks like "let's get cousins teve to move some piles of dirt around to make it look like we are starting a project."

What got me to buy back my puts in Aug was when I read that their only income is having the "engineers" install solar at Trevor's ranch. if this was a legit company, those "engineers" could have made Trevor more money by working on any of their vehicles, building a factory, building the hydrogen infrastructure, etc. But nope. They worked on feathering his nest as the best use of their "expertise" and "time". THAT is a clear example of hubris as he didn't think anyone would notice.
 

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I just had the chance to catch up on what happened with TSLA after battery day. Seems like there weren't any magical unicorns unleashed: announcement of a faster TSLA (presumably to mess with Porsche), announcements of a move away from cobalt, a move to tabless batteries, and the target of a $25K EV.

Price has dropped nearly 13.8% from yesterday's high. Talk about volatility.
I think this company will survive but clearly it's running on hopes/dreams right now. IMO, there's a good deal farther for it to fall.

I looked into the cobalt batteries.
The new design is lithium/iron/phosphate (LFP). Current TSLA batteries (and ones for the near/mid term) will continue to use nickel/cobalt/aluminum (NCA)

Interesting report on degradation of cobalt cathodes and why LION batteries die.
Challenge of elimnating cathode is increased manufacturing costs AND potential additional degradation if batteries get hot.
 

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They also had a "Complete Network" system outage today which didn't help with confidence.

I'm wondering as to the cause. Could be foul play involved.



Not a good day for TSLA.
 
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Came up on NPR today: a recent Survey from NPR and Harvard recently found
46% of Americans having "Serious Financial Problems" paying for rent, food, etc.


Let that sink in.
-g
 

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Came up on NPR today: a recent Survey from NPR and Harvard recently found
46% of Americans having "Serious Financial Problems" paying for rent, food, etc.


Let that sink in.
-g
As long as "Many of these problems are concentrated among Black and Latino households in the four cities, ..." most people could care less. It's a sampling of a sector of the population that has always been under-served. That sector has been hit hardest by the pandemic. Nothing new here.

Perspective: It's a sampling of 4 of American's largest cities. So, technically, 46% of the population in four of American's largest cities is not "46% of Americans."
 
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As long as "Many of these problems are concentrated among Black and Latino households in the four cities, ..." most people could care less. It's a sampling of a sector of the population that has always been under-served. That sector has been hit hardest by the pandemic. Nothing new here.

Perspective: It's a sampling of 4 of American's largest cities. So, technically, 46% of the population in four of American's largest cities is not "46% of Americans."
1) By "Most people" I assume you mean most "white people". That is probably sadly true that a lot of folks could care less. This is why people screaming about white power and **** BLM is somehow OK in 2020.


2) You are also right that 4 largest cities is only (I checked) is 16.7M people or 5% of the US population (328M).
However:
- Prepandemic, unemployment rates in the US were LOWEST in major metro areas (in 2018, it was 3.9% vs 4.2% or roughly 7% better in urban areas).
.

- This survey looked across ALL income/ages/races.

Now let's just say that people (I'm not saying you) simply don't care about anyone who doesn't look like them and/or worship the same way they do.
As with covid, you can't pretend that the economic impact only affects cities or minorities. It's hitting across the board. Sure, some places/people are hit harder and it's cheaper to live in small town USA than SF but retail/restaurant jobs are being affected in both places.

As I've stated before consumer spending is what drives the American economy. Spending by white people, yellow people, brown, black, pretty much anyone except the grey ones who are underground already. If you want your UAL or CCL stocks to climb out of the shitter? You need people to have a little extra spending money to spend money on things beyond what they need to survive. You want BA and XON to climb? Aerospace and energy stocks will climb AFTER consumer demand climbs and spending on fuel and planes goes up again.

I hope its obvious to everyone now that with this much unemployment, with these many people with bills to pay, that EVEN IF WE GET A VACCINE tomorrow (we won't) and EVEN IF IT'S PROVEN AS SAFE AS THE FLU VACCINE (doubtful if its rushed), we face a long, drawn out, U-shaped recovery.
Why? All of the tools the Fed could have used to pull us out (lowering interest rates to zero and yes, even printing money) have already been used -- first to pump an economy that was already healthy to all-time-highs and then to keep us from falling off a cliff (fair enough). The only thing I can guarantee is that even if Biden wins, there will be tons of people claiming on Jan 20th that all of it was his fault. After all, some people say that Biden didn't do enough this year to mandate masks.

Best you can do? IMO, prepare accordingly. FWIW, the rest of the world seems to have done a better job than us so I expect them to bounce back sooner.
CHinese production and pollution are climbing to pre-pandemic levels (consumer stuff definitely back to normal / industrial production still recovering)

Of the money we still have left in the equities market, the biggest chunk outside of my wife and my RSUs from our employers (both small companies) is actually in overseas funds.
 

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NKLA dying on the vine. I guess someone woke up and finished the report
closed at $21.15 (25% down)
If my balls were bigger I would have bought long term (leap) puts on NKLA at its pre-fall price and waited for its death before forcing someone to buy my turds.
That's gambling vs setting traps though (I would control execution) so it really wasn't my bag.

NIO dropped 6% but they are a real company.
We'll see if I sell more puts next week where I aim (I only really want to own them around $8).

WKHS codeveloped a delivery van with UPS. They have GM's old stepvan factory in Cincinnati and are a "front runner" for the USPS truck business. (if USPS survives).
Finally, they own 10% of Lordstown motors (another old GM plant) which you can buy today as part of the SPAC DPHC. It's another EV truck.

I'm not sure I want to bet on another EV company that hasn't shipped a product just yet but the current dip might be interesting for gambling.
FWIW, WKHS would be my choice over another Lordstown. They have orders from UPS on the books, UPS demand isnt' dropping anytime soon, and COULD see a pop if USPS picks them.

A short haul delivery truck makes more practical sense as an EV than a bigass fullsized American truck. Even if EVs could do the job (most trucks could technically be replaced by subcompact cars for what they are used for), people buy bigass american trucks because for what they THINK they will do with the vehicle far more than what they actually do with the vehicle.
 

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I don't know. I live in a bubble.

You didn't hear, Gavin Newsome is going to ban gasoline powered vehicles by 2035. They are going to need to build a lot more EV's.
 

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2035 is a LONG way off. A lot can happen in a decade and a half ... if we're still here ...

GIANT METEOR 2020 ! ... JUST get it over already!!!

 

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New cars sold after 2035 will need to be zero emissions. Anything made before 2035 can still be owned / driven / bought and sold just like normal. Commercial trucks starting 2045.
 

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New cars sold after 2035 will need to be zero emissions. Anything made before 2035 can still be owned / driven / bought and sold just like normal. Commercial trucks starting 2045.
I believe the exact wording was gasoline only. I suspect in 15 years, most new cars will have hybrid or EV powertrains anyway just like there are more 4cyl turbo than NA vehicles.
Its just the March of technology.
 

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Discussion Starter #614
New cars sold after 2035 will need to be zero emissions. Anything made before 2035 can still be owned / driven / bought and sold just like normal. Commercial trucks starting 2045.
I hope that emissions regulations DON'T get stricter for existing ICE based vehicles prior to 2035.
 

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1) By "Most people" I assume you mean most "white people". That is probably sadly true that a lot of folks could care less. This is why people screaming about white power and **** BLM is somehow OK in 2020.
"Most people" as I used the term, are those who fall outside of the "vulnerable populations" identified in the report. As we've discussed previously, the general consensus attitude in America is that "If it doesn't affect me directly, I don't care.".

I'll edit this post tomorrow when I have more time to explain myself. Sorry, it's late in the day. I fired that post off right before walking out the door at work tonight.

2) You are also right that 4 largest cities is only (I checked) is 16.7M people or 5% of the US population (328M).
However:
- Prepandemic, unemployment rates in the US were LOWEST in major metro areas (in 2018, it was 3.9% vs 4.2% or roughly 7% better in urban areas).
.

- This survey looked across ALL income/ages/races.
Yes, the survey looked at ALL income/ages/races. The stated aim of the survey background was to "IDENTIFY vulnerable populations".

- Prepandemic (January 2020) when the unemployment rate was "LOWEST in major metro areas" I got ROBBED (smash and grabbed the stuff out of my rental car) in Houston by some individuals within that vulnerable "sector of the population". F that city. Yeah, I don't care ... about that vulnerable "sector of the population" ... in Houston at least.

Now let's just say that people (I'm not saying you) simply don't care about anyone who doesn't look like them and/or worship the same way they do.
As with covid, you can't pretend that the economic impact only affects cities or minorities. It's hitting across the board. Sure, some places/people are hit harder and it's cheaper to live in small town USA than SF but retail/restaurant jobs are being affected in both places.

As I've stated before consumer spending is what drives the American economy. Spending by white people, yellow people, brown, black, pretty much anyone except the grey ones who are underground already. If you want your UAL or CCL stocks to climb out of the shitter? You need people to have a little extra spending money to spend money on things beyond what they need to survive. You want BA and XON to climb? Aerospace and energy stocks will climb AFTER consumer demand climbs and spending on fuel and planes goes up again.

I hope its obvious to everyone now that with this much unemployment, with these many people with bills to pay, that EVEN IF WE GET A VACCINE tomorrow (we won't) and EVEN IF IT'S PROVEN AS SAFE AS THE FLU VACCINE (doubtful if its rushed), we face a long, drawn out, U-shaped recovery.
Why? All of the tools the Fed could have used to pull us out (lowering interest rates to zero and yes, even printing money) have already been used -- first to pump an economy that was already healthy to all-time-highs and then to keep us from falling off a cliff (fair enough). The only thing I can guarantee is that even if Biden wins, there will be tons of people claiming on Jan 20th that all of it was his fault. After all, some people say that Biden didn't do enough this year to mandate masks.

Best you can do? IMO, prepare accordingly. FWIW, the rest of the world seems to have done a better job than us so I expect them to bounce back sooner.
Chinese production and pollution are climbing to pre-pandemic levels (consumer stuff definitely back to normal / industrial production still recovering)

Of the money we still have left in the equities market, the biggest chunk outside of my wife and my RSUs from our employers (both small companies) is actually in overseas funds.
I understand how consumer spending works and I understand how it drives the economy. You're preachin' to the choir. On the FED and all the PREPANDEMIC stimulus measures. I said before, you can only pour so much gas on the economic fire but at the end of the day you're left with an empty gas can and a pile of ash. If the current administration had not played free and loose with the stimulus early into their term they would have had more bullets to fire at this crisis.

The rest of the world has definitely done a better job than the US.

Anyway, I believe what we're looking at is not a U shaped recovery but a K shaped recovery.
 

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I believe the exact wording was gasoline only. I suspect in 15 years, most new cars will have hybrid or EV powertrains anyway just like there are more 4cyl turbo than NA vehicles.
Its just the March of technology.
Nudge of technology*

But yeah, seemed like the way the industry was headed anyway. No skin off my back everything’s going to be a stupid SUV/Crossover by then, so I’ll stick with the old **** like I already had been.


I hope that emissions regulations DON'T get stricter for existing ICE based vehicles prior to 2035.
Higher probability would be incentives to get you out of them, by way of registration fees, fuel taxes(which CA already does) or even higher insurance premiums since they’re cronies for politicians. But really when the bulk of the population converts to EV the few holdouts with straight gasoline will have a fairly insignificant impact to merit draconian punishment.
 

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Speaking of Oil and Gas the US stockpiles are finally coming back in line with demand.

 

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New cars sold after 2035 will need to be zero emissions. Anything made before 2035 can still be owned / driven / bought and sold just like normal. Commercial trucks starting 2045.
By 2035 and definitely by 2045. Self-driving vehicles will be ubiquitous. AI is taking over. I was watching a documentary yesterday with some amazing - and accurate - projections for the future.

On Trucking:
  • Trucking was deregulated in 1980. Truck drivers then made an average salary of 100K / year driving (equivalent to today's dollars). Today truck drivers make an average salary of only 40K per year. Drivers are now forced to work longer hours for less pay in what one economist calls "Sweat shops on wheels".
  • The trucking industry is a 740 Billion a year industry
  • Labor is 1/3 of that cost.
  • Elimination or near elimination of that labor cost will save the trucking industry 247 Billion dollars.
  • Self-driving cars and trucks are coming.
On all other Labor:
  • 50% of all jobs will be somewhat or extremely threatened by AI in the next 15 years.
 

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Discussion Starter #619
50% of all jobs will be somewhat or extremely threatened by AI in the next 15 years.
Unless these threated jobs are replaced with entire new industries worth of jobs, what will happen with that 50% of the population? Will they be moved on to some sort of social benefits program because they cannot work? Will these new industries absorb even 25% of those who will not be working? Will new industries even be created? How much wider will the wealth gap be than it is today?
 

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Unless these threated jobs are replaced with entire new industries worth of jobs, what will happen with that 50% of the population? Will they be moved on to some sort of social benefits program because they cannot work? Will these new industries absorb even 25% of those who will not be working? Will new industries even be created? How much wider will the wealth gap be than it is today?
My thought? We will see some new jobs replaced (just like people getting into services/gig economy when before they had dedicated lower/middle income jobs) but we will see a wider wealth gap until some forward thinking government (probably not the GOP) decides to implement a UBI.

I'm more optimistic here as there are a ton of jobs now that weren't around 15 years ago. I remember reading a paper that postulated that 40% of kindergarteners will work in jobs that didn't exist when they were 5. Historically, as people came off the farms and agriculture got mechanized, we saw a bunch of new factory jobs being created.

I can imagine a TON of new industries being created. Right now, there are lots of jobs created in both collecting data and training, and implementing neural networks to do all sorts of pattern detecting. They are new jobs on both ends of the scale (the data collectors and the data massagers) but obviously its not a 1:1 replacement for the old jobs.

The hardest part will be if you are in your 50s as the change comes to your jobs. I wouldn't want to be an early 50s journalist or truck driver, for example. You probably won't work that many years so any additional investment in retraining will be tough. Anyone in their 20s-30s in those industries must prepare for a shift before retirement. I myself work in the semiconductor business and as things consolidate, I see that 20yrs after I started I'm still one of the younger folks working in this field (at least on the business front). Why? Younger people with my personality/skills moved into SW or other related fields.
 
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