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How much will this affect our recovery?

There are a lot of other much more influential recovery variables than the savings rate, primarily the employment rate. I think the savings rate effect is going to be minimal. A lot of that savings will eventually be spent on travel and vacations. But people have got to get back to work before any of that can happen. Vacation travel and the entertainment industry are for the most part a self-licking ice cream cone. We don't NEED to vacation, we don't NEED to visit that amusement park or go to that concert or movie theater. The essentials are all we really need. Clean air, food and water, shelter and security. Everything else is superfluous to those basic needs.

For the COVID long term (next two to four years) Home Improvement (LOW and HD), home streaming (DIS, NFLX, AMZN, AAPL), home delivery (AMZN), etc. are where it's at. But the market has already moved in that direction. Any play on the travel and live entertainment industries for the eventual recovery are IMHO long term plays.

On a related note to savings, I'm already pissed at the diminished returns on savings with the fed rate at what zero? near zero? You might as well stuff your savings under a mattress or pile of bricks in the basement. The return rate would be the same.

Most Americans are loathed to do anything with their savings except to well ... stick it in a low yield savings account. My parents were of this lot. I helped them move their savings into a high yield account. That lasted about six months before the bottom fell out and the rates dropped to near zero. I'm so sick of these low rates. They're just gifts to banks, corporations and 1%ers.
 

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Most Americans are loathed to do anything with their savings except to well ... stick it in a low yield savings account. My parents were of this lot. I helped them move their savings into a high yield account. That lasted about six months before the bottom fell out and the rates dropped to near zero. I'm so sick of these low rates. They're just gifts to banks, corporations and 1%ers.
My parents bought land and packed CDs. I don't think my mom owned a single share of stock until after I had started working and was buying them myself.

1) I seem to recall you being in NC which has a state income tax. I'm not sure where they live but buying an ETF for them of NC Muni bonds could be beneficial and would function very similar to a savings acct except you only want to cash out after the ex-dividend dates.
If NC defaults on their bonds, well, you have bigger systemic issues to worry about.
Examples: FCNRX, FLNCX, NTFIX, MSNCX
I haven't dug into them (check expenses and for the MF, confirm front/rear loads, and check the fees).
However, they do seem to yield in the 3% APY range.

2) There's always TSLA LEAPs @ $1 that I posted before that nets 2% but that's pretty much a CD.
 

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The money printer has stopped b/c Trump refuses to allow Mnuchin to continue negotiating with Pelosi.
I'm not sure what the tactical idea behind this is other than to hurt the people who need stimulus help the most and focus on stuffing the SCOTUS instead of dealing with the pandemic OR helping the people. It kind of feels like he's giving up and taking everything of value he can grab before he's evicted. Like a tenant stealing the copper plumbing and screen doors.

Q: Does he think this will convince people to support him b/c "he'll make the stimulus money flow again post election"?
If so, this kind of ignores the fact that the House has passed both a $3.4T and a $2.2T stimulus bill AND Mitch wouldn't look at either, I doubt even the most staunch supporter can say this helps ANYONE's case.

... and less than 12 hours later, this clown tweets about certain parts of the stimulus (PPP, airline support) that is sure to garner votes.

Is this really the kind of "stable genius" we want running our govt?

I'm not sure going short is the right way to be aggressive. Maybe an investment in VIXY is a better play since you are gambling on volatility? Or, is it priced in already?
 

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For all those who wanna find the next TSLA.
Q: Do you guys remember Faraday Future?
  • This was an auto mfg funded by a Chinese "billionaire" a few years ago.
  • Showed up at CES one year with a supercar w/ a microprojector that cast their logo on their vertical rear wing

- They showed up a year later with an SUV that actually moved under its own power (aka not a Badger)

- Turns out the CEO might not have been a billionaire and had to declare bankruptcy.

- They even had their own future factory in the desert aka hole in the ground (that was in NV not AZ)

So now, with all the money flying into EVs, a new management group, along with allegedly a new set of investors, want to take this POS public with a SPAC

While they might have lost all of their R&D talent, they still have 124 patents granted. Funny part is that only 26 (vs ALL in the case of NKLA) are design patents. Is that worth something? Maybe. Is it worth the $850M or so the SPAC will pay for FF? Nah.

I wonder who will buy into these scams.
 

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You guys make any moves this week?
 

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No, I haven't. Kinda busy with work right now and I'm all in. I don't have much cash to work with right now.

How about you?

BTW, That Faraday Future looks like a crappy rip off of the Mercedes Vision AVTR

 

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All our technical innovation and progress, shedding all the waste of V8 engines, shedding all that impractical packaging of large coupes, automakers can finally focus on making practical designs for people.... like lambo transparent doors, LED tire treads and gigantic light up emblems 😝
 

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No, I haven't. Kinda busy with work right now and I'm all in. I don't have much cash to work with right now.

How about you?

BTW, That Faraday Future looks like a crappy rip off of the Mercedes Vision AVTR

I saw both models @ CES. FF looks like it escaped that SNES game F-Zero.
The Mercedes looked like an oversized mouse.

I think I'm ready to short the market by buying into SQQQ.
Expense ratio isn't bad (<1%), I wouldn't put a bunch in (less than I have in TSLA puts), and the potential upside is high compared to the march dip is pretty good ($21.84 now, $161 at March peak).

I looked at other scenarios,
  • VIX based ETFs (which bet on market uncertainty -- but this went high in march and pretty much stayed high).
  • Buying calls on SQQQ for Dec
and none of them capture my belief that the market will **** the bed to some extent in the next 3-6 months.
I'm done catching falling knives since i don't know how far DOWN to aim with my strike prices on future options with an impending crash. The ones I have still in play between now and Q1-2020 are all at levels I'll be happy to own the stock at long term.

If there is a contested election, I think the sheer uncertainty will drive the market down.
Any vaccine CURE has already been "priced in" so any delay will cause a stumble.
How much can ANYONE, even the most optimistic degenerate gambler, can expect the market to rise at this point?
5%? 10%?
If so, that means I lose 3x that value so maybe 30% of the investment. That won't kill me.

Problem is that i don't know WHEN a fall will happen so buying an option doesn't make any sense.
Therefore, buying the short ETF makes sense if things go sideways for a bit more as the expense ratio isn't bad.
We won't see a stimulus package, airline employees are now furloughed (but not fired), what good news can we expect?
 

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I dabbled in the UVXY once. Made a little money and got out quickly. That is DEFINETLY not a buy and hold fund!

I'd buy on a Friday and look for some sh!t over the weekend to drive the market down on Monday. It happens more often than you realize.
 

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I dabbled in the UVXY once. Made a little money and got out quickly. That is DEFINETLY not a buy and hold fund!

I'd buy on a Friday and look for some sh!t over the weekend to drive the market down on Monday. It happens more often than you realize.
I got in and expect to sell it after the next drop. I can't imagine holding it more than 3-6 months.
 

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Yeah, trying to catch falling knives is no fun. Just do the opposite of whatever Senator Burr says. LOL

I saw that. Clearly, if they'll send Martha Stewart to jail, the only safe job for insider trading is to become a Senator.
 

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ROBLOX did a confidential IPO filing.

It looks like they will direct list (meaning that all of the sudden, they will start trading shares on the market) early next year. Something to keep on your radar as this platform is big with kids (for now).
 

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I don't see any help coming for the people. Anyone who thinks the market will continue trucking along is IMO, mad.

Whoa.

Trump wanted a slush fund he could direct as part of the next stimulus pkg

Mcconnell wants to vote on a $500B stimulus pkg next week to refill the PPP program but not provide funding for the states or individual stimulus checks. Keep in mind that the burden of contact tracing and the burden of future vaccine rollout falls on the states. Without federal help, how will states pay for these two essential steps to opening the economy back up?
 

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Discussion Starter #655
IMO, the market will crash around late January or early February at the latest if nothing is done to prop up states and the broader economy.
 

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IMO, the market will crash around late January or early February at the latest if nothing is done to prop up states and the broader economy.
You're absolutely right.

The way I see it:

1) I don't doubt that tRump and the repugnant-cans would do just that as a burn the bridge move on their way out the door during a lame duck session after loosing the election. As an "I told you so." move to the ignorant public AKA the trump Al-Qaeda (The Base) - as in "We told you if you elected a Democrat that the economy would crash." See how bad it is! Creating a self-fulfilling-prophesy.

2) The market will drop - not crash - as the market anticipates the reinstatement of regulations that were rolled back under trump.

3) The market will drop - not crash - as COVID cases rise explosively over the winter and further restrictions have to be reinstated. The numbers are already rising explosively in a lot of states and we've just started fall; let alone the winter cold, flu and now COVID season. Some people might think they're done with the virus, but the virus isn't done with them.

4) I anticipate NK soon making a test launch of one of those fancy new ICBM's that they rolled out at their parade last week. That will increase tensions on the peninsula.

5) My biggest fear and, as I've said previously, I highly anticipate that tRump will not concede a loss regardless of how big or small it is and will cling to power. That's going to get really ugly and will very much upset the market.

There are a lot more factors that will push the market down than allow it to rise at this point.
 

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IMO, the market will crash around late January or early February at the latest if nothing is done to prop up states and the broader economy.
I'll bet "the music stops" sooner and to a worse degree that you TM and CDB expect.

  • I don't see Trump going quietly and there is no reason for Biden to let off the pressure on Trump (say pardon him like Ford => Nixon did so the country could "move on") for political OR personal reasons (look at all the attacks Trump has made via Hunter when Biden has not chosen to throw the Trump spawn under the bus despite all the evidence of their criminality).
  • We all agree that Covid cases will rise explosively; it's already happening. Where I disagree is that I don't believe the additional cases plus the restrictions to be reinstated will NOT be looked past by the market; I don't believe they will be able to do so for much longer. In March/April, a good number of people thought their furloughs were going to be temporary until the lockdown was over. Now, a lot of them have become permanent despite their industries (like airlines and automotive) having ALREADY received bailouts.
  • If I had to bet, a dem led legislature+exec branch will prioritize more help towards for individuals and the states to help with their pandemic expenses vs businesses/industries (whereas the GOP has been emphasizing the exact opposite).
Hence, my bet on SQQQ.
 

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TSLA will report Q3 earnings after EOB tomorrow (Wed).
Do you think its gonna go up or down?

A few datapoints

I'll bet a correction but I could be wrong.
If you are up dramatically, it might be worth buying a put as a hedge
 

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Discussion Starter #659
The article basically states that sales of Teslas were up from Q2, but saw sales decrease in CA and sales increase in other parts of the country.

I agree with the article in it stating that Tesla has likely reached a saturation point here in California. At least for now. When the Cyber Truck is released, there will be a large new wave of orders / deliveries in CA and across the country.
 

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The article basically states that sales of Teslas were up from Q2, but saw sales decrease in CA and sales increase in other parts of the country.

I agree with the article in it stating that Tesla has likely reached a saturation point here in California. At least for now. When the Cyber Truck is released, there will be a large new wave of orders / deliveries in CA and across the country.
You think this is unique to CA and we are just "full up on EVs" until a truck is available? While you may be right, i think consumer spending is a bigger factor than market saturation.

CA leads the nation in EV adoption and is also the wealthiest state in the US so the # of buyers willing to plonk "Tesla money" on a vehicle is more than in any other state. If CA registrations are down, how do you think it looks in the parts of the country where $60K+ cars are NOT as commonplace?
 
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