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Discussion Starter #681
We locked the rate at 3.25% several weeks ago. So, no change in my rate. I asked if we can go back and see if the rate can be re-locked as interest rates have fallen since, but she said that doing so would be another 30 day process in review (or whatever it was she called it). I'm hesitant to go through that again as I just want this to be done now.
 

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We locked the rate at 3.25% several weeks ago. So, no change in my rate. I asked if we can go back and see if the rate can be re-locked as interest rates have fallen since, but she said that doing so would be another 30 day process in review (or whatever it was she called it). I'm hesitant to go through that again as I just want this to be done now.
Do the math. 30 days is nothing in the face of saving 0.5% or more. I kicked off the whole refi to drop from 3.375% to 2.375%

Even if you pay $500 to re-lock, if you can get 2.25% (what my broker just locked for a friend with a conforming loan) vs 3.25% you WILL save money.

Using an amortization spreadsheet and assuming you borrow $200K, the difference between the two interests on a 30yr fixed is $105.92/mo
  • If the relock fee is $500 bucks, you'll make that up in a <5 months.
  • This is a no brainer since you'll still be in the house in 5 months.

PM me your gmail acct and I can send you an amortization spreadsheet you can play with if you want.
 

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Discussion Starter #683
Sending you PM.

I'm already saving $120/mo on going from FHA to conventional. If I were to go back and say I wanted to re-lock at a lower rate - assuming that was possible with my credit score and having to go through the hurdles of my student loan repayment issues due to COVID and HVAC loan issues - what factors besides market rate and credit score affect interest rates?
 

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Sending you PM.

I'm already saving $120/mo on going from FHA to conventional. If I were to go back and say I wanted to re-lock at a lower rate - assuming that was possible with my credit score and having to go through the hurdles of my student loan repayment issues due to COVID and HVAC loan issues - what factors besides market rate and credit score affect interest rates?
Zep sees the other side more than me because its his day job but I'm going through this process now with a broker and have gone through this process maybe 3 or so times in my 10+ years of home ownership.

Basic gist is that a broker and the underwriter can make money 3 ways with a refi closing:
  • Underwriter (Rocket/etc) aka the loan servicer will chage a fee
  • Charge you a fee up front based on the amoun borrowed
  • Roll the above commission into the loan
  • Within a range, any rate can be bought/sold at closing. This means that if you agree to a higher rate than the broker can lock, the underwriter will issue a credit. Inversely, you can bring more money at closing and get a lower rate. In my recent case, the 1/8th pt would cost $4K.
  • So the final way they can make money is obtain a better rate from the underwriter than you agree to and then translate the rate difference into money in THEIR pocket.

Most brokers are shady and only tell you a) they will pay your existing loan off b) how much you pay out of pocket or get back and c) what you will pay per month moving forward.

Especially when buying a new home, most people are in a rush to close that these thee things are enough. The missing piece is exactly what will be financed since that includes the broker/underwriter profit. This is like buying a car based on payments only.

In your situation, I'm NOT suggesting you switch brokers. Your situation is complicated enough that if they can give you a better deal on a relock even if its not as good as 2.375%, I'd do it. Even if you go to the back of the line and have to pay the higher rate for another month.
 

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Here are some fun datapoints to look at:

Futures Market Pricing

The Futures market is tied to the major US indexes and trades from 5PM Eastern on Sunday through 4:15PM Easter on Friday. You can then see late at night or on Sunday to see what the traders in Asia/Europe are thinking the US market will do the next morning trading is open here.


Wanna see what tickers the people on reddit are yammering about?

Wanna see what insider (named investors) are doing with tickers?
  • There are plenty of reasons why an exec at a company might sell shares.
  • There is only ONE reason why an insider would spend money to invest in what for most people is probably one of the largest revenue streams they have. If you are a C-level employee, you are probably given shares as part of your compensation. WHY buy more for any other reason than you think it will go up?

Unsual Stock Options Activity
- Someone buying a lot of puts or calls tells you they expect the stock price to fall/rise (respectively)
 

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I just found this series this morning.
Just in case you aren't willing accept the imminent stock market plunge (SQQQ is up 15% from my original position b/c of the fall in the NASDAQ100), here's an interesting podcast that goes into more detail about how the 2017 tax bill -- which cost me and others in the middle class MORE money was sold under "trickledown economics" but effectively blew up our national debt.

Net result, stock prices climbed far higher than they should have been for the state of the pre-pandemic economy.

The Heist Episode 3: Anatomy of how the Tax Bill was passed

The Heist Episode 4: What corporations did with their new money from lowered corp taxes

The Heist Episode 5: The Pandemic

Its not too late to lock in your profits. Or even some of your profits.
 

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Discussion Starter #688
I'll be giving those podcasts a listen later today, or tomorrow.

Thanks Gunn!

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk
 

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I’m looking to buy some NIO. Next week.
 

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Discussion Starter #690
I’m looking to buy some NIO. Next week.
Is that to compliment your holdings in Tesla, or to expand your portfolio?

I just read a few articles on NIO and being an EV manufacturer - with you know, actual manufacturing cough NKLA cough - is the place to be right now.
 

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I’m looking to buy some NIO. Next week.
Its super volatile right now. I'd hold off. I want to own NIO @ $8-15. NIO @ $30 is running on hope and dreams.
Keep in mind that they are doing some impressive things RE: battery lease/swaps BUT their mfg/sales are an order of magnitude less than TLSA 30K vs 300K.
 

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I have a limit buy order set at about $21. I don’t remember exactly where I set it at. Anyway I’d be really surprised to see it drop as low as $8 to $15.
 

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I'm already saving $120/mo on going from FHA to conventional. If I were to go back and say I wanted to re-lock at a lower rate - assuming that was possible with my credit score and having to go through the hurdles of my student loan repayment issues due to COVID and HVAC loan issues - what factors besides market rate and credit score affect interest rates?
Credit score, loan to value, refi vs. refi w/cash out, debt to income ratio,and loan size are the biggest contributing factors.

Higher loan size, but under Jumbo is better.
Higher credit score is better.
Lower loan to value is better. Get to 75% for the best rate.
Cash out refis take a hit on rate.
DTI needs to be below 45, much better before 35.

Assuming an 80% loan to value, under 40 DTI, credit score over 680, loan amount and 200k, I'd bet you can get 2.625 all day. We don't allow relocks, because fallout rate of loans sold to our investor cause it pricing to be worse, therefore it rates to our members go up. If you can get one for a reasonable cost DO IT. That's a lot of money over 5-7 years (average life cycle of mortgages before the last few years)

And as long as you're documenting what you had to do on the HVAC loan, you should be good even if you have to go elsewhere. Student loan debt is all to common.
 

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Market is up so SQQQ is down to <$21 (it was at $25 leading into the election)

I strongly believe we are in for some serious market turmoil -- both from political maneuvering + unrest AND with covid spiking b/c of noncompliance forcing a lockdown (or an attempt at one). No further stimulus is coming until Jan (if ever)..

Given that the fundamentals so far out out of whack on the NASDAQ100, I bought "bought the dip" on some more SQQQ.

We'll see how this plays out.
 

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Went ahead and bought the NIO at about 34. They’re priced like TSLA in 2013!

The CITI financial PT is $46.40. I believe they’ll be over $100 next year. I’ll pick up more on any dip. They have Q3 earnings report on 11/10.
 

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Discussion Starter #697
Does anyone have any speculation if / when F is going to reinstate their dividend? I'm simply holding on to my shares in F because I hope they bring their dividend back. It's cheap enough that I want to buy more, but at the same time I don't want to buy more if they're not going to bring back their dividend.

I fit in possibly 3 of these categories
OMG, that was great! 🤣

I partially fit into two of those categories.
 

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OMG The Quants slayed me! That's some funny Sh!t !
 

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Does anyone have any speculation if / when F is going to reinstate their dividend? I'm simply holding on to my shares in F because I hope they bring their dividend back. It's cheap enough that I want to buy more, but at the same time I don't want to buy more if they're not going to bring back their dividend.
No Idea on F. Probably be a year or more before their Divvy comes back and then at a reduced rate to what it was prior to the suspension. I'm looking to dump F at as close to $10 or $11 as I can.

You can read through the stories and comments here to get a good feel for the general consensus on F.

 
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Does anyone have any speculation if / when F is going to reinstate their dividend? I'm simply holding on to my shares in F because I hope they bring their dividend back. It's cheap enough that I want to buy more, but at the same time I don't want to buy more if they're not going to bring back their dividend.
1) At its heart, paying a dividend is what you do to return revenue to shareholders when you dont believe you can do anything better with it to grow the value of the company. This is why mature companies (like utilities) pay a lot of dividends -- they can't actively grow their customer base (without acquisitions) OR lower their costs down easily so they return the money as dividends. THey make what they make (esp since what they can charge is heavily regulated) and cut corners where they can (see PG&E).

2) Ford's revenue has been on the decline since 2018. 2020 was especially bad for them (and all auto companies)

Analysts estimates for EPS, Sales, and Revenue all seem flat going into Q1-2021 (aka its not getting better before the pandemic ends)

Q: What did the insiders do?
Except for the CEO making a buy @ $5.13 back in May, no other exec/insider has purchased additional shares right now.

Q: Taking a step back, do you see anything that could change Ford's revenues for the better?
- Noone "needs" a mustang so in a recession, don't expect them to be flying off the shelves.

- Ford says they will mfg 50k Ford MustangE; however, I don't see a bunch of hype around this vehicle like the model 3/X so I'm personally skeptical about this number

- They estimate the new bronco may ship 200K in 2021. This is probably the closest thing to a single vehicle which could 'save' Ford.

- Ford is basically a truck company but a lot of the most recent hype is around EV trucks (Cybertruck + HummerEV). Ford plans to introduce an F150EV and Transit van EV but it doesn't sound imminent.

- Ford thinks they have enough cash to get through 2020.

Bottom Line:
  • My guess is that Ford won't reinstate dividends until they are through the pandemic and sales recover.
  • Since trucks are more expensive vehicles, maybe the K-shaped recovery will help them so best case, 2H-2021.
  • Worst case may have you waiting a good deal longer than that if the virus morphs/gets worse.
  • Personally, If I really wanted to own Ford, I'd part 100 shares worth of money into an acct and sell a cash secured put at some price I'd like to own long term. I don't think $7.86 seems good.
Picking something like $6/strike would tie up $600 and in exchange for doing so, someone will pay you 10c share or $10. $10 on a $600 deposit is the equivalent yield of 8.57% APY
If the price drops to $6, you are buying the stock at a discount. If it doesn't, you just made 8.57% yield on your cash. You don't get any dividends but honestly, what's the chance a dividend will be declared between now and Jan 15, 2021 (0%).

 
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