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Look at you guys making money over there with your TSLA shares and speculating on buying AMZN. And here I am happy that I'm about being $0.05/share away from breaking even with my F holdings!

🤣
Yeah, I don't want to talk about my stocks with 90% losses. 😂
Yeah, we've all got our losers. My break even on F is $10.50. I'm WAY underwater on UA/UAA and XOM.

That's what diversification is all about! You're winners better damn well offset your losers.
 

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Diversify. 🤔

My break even for F was at $5.30 and GM at $23. I bought more of each during the dip earlier this year and it brought down my dollar coat average. (y)

I would be more inclined to buy additional TSLA at its price before the jump this morning than AMZN currently .. That stock needs to split.
 

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Discussion Starter #723
Yeah, we've all got our losers. My break even on F is $10.50. I'm WAY underwater on UA/UAA and XOM.

That's what diversification is all about! You're winners better damn well offset your losers.
Yeah, I know about diversification. I'm just trying to grow my portfolio right now. My "want to buy" watch list has 53 companies at my last count, lol. My "own" list is only a mere 8 companies presently. And my F holdings are down $0.11 presently, so I'm $0.16 down from my break even point
.

I'm still looking to buy into PFE and move it from my "want to buy" list to my "own" list.
 

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Yeah, I know about diversification. I'm just trying to grow my portfolio right now. My "want to buy" watch list has 53 companies at my last count, lol. My "own" list is only a mere 8 companies presently. And my F holdings are down $0.11 presently, so I'm $0.16 down from my break even point
.

I'm still looking to buy into PFE and move it from my "want to buy" list to my "own" list.
Wow! Need to narrow that list down just a little bit. Pick a top 10 or 15 from your watch list. What are your holdings now?
 

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Yeah, I know about diversification. I'm just trying to grow my portfolio right now. My "want to buy" watch list has 53 companies at my last count, lol. My "own" list is only a mere 8 companies presently. And my F holdings are down $0.11 presently, so I'm $0.16 down from my break even point
.

I'm still looking to buy into PFE and move it from my "want to buy" list to my "own" list.
CDB - None of your stocks will give you a guaranteed ROI more than paying down your consumer debt.

It also doesn't matter if TSLA jumps 20% if you never sell the shares to realize the gains whereas every $1 you put towards paying down any debts above 10% APY frees up more $ for the future.
 

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AirBNB made their S1 public

Airbnb is expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker ABNB in the coming weeks. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs were among the underwriters for the IPO.
 

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CDB - None of your stocks will give you a guaranteed ROI more than paying down your consumer debt.

It also doesn't matter if TSLA jumps 20% if you never sell the shares to realize the gains whereas every $1 you put towards paying down any debts above 10% APY frees up more $ for the future.
I realize that paying down debt gives me more money, but I've come to terms that debt is just a part of [my] life. It will always be there in one way or another for a plethora of different reasons. The ability for me to pay down my debt faster is for me to make extra cash either as a side hustle (growing dividend income / second job / Uber or Lyft driver / etc.) and / or growing in my career.

We've talked about this before both in this thread and in private.
 

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I realize that paying down debt gives me more money, but I've come to terms that debt is just a part of [my] life. It will always be there in one way or another for a plethora of different reasons. The ability for me to pay down my debt faster is for me to make extra cash either as a side hustle (growing dividend income / second job / Uber or Lyft driver / etc.) and / or growing in my career.

We've talked about this before both in this thread and in private.
I'll keep things to what we discussed publically.

- I think there are things you should accept and that includes some kinds of debt (ex: a home mortgage). I was 10 out of 30 years into paying off my mortgage but I decided to REFI recently because the savings would be substantial and the cost to borrow has gone down significantly even from my last loan mod this past April restarting and essentially taking 10 more years to pay off my house is something I can live with.

- However, credit card debt is NOT one of those things. It's not an enabler to get things you need (like a car loan, or the HVAC repair). Its a cancer.

- All of us could stand to make more money. I too want some additional passive income streams and am always looking for additional projects to do that.

Given your time constraints, growing your income via passive dividend investing is not a bad idea... but its a worse one compared to paying off your debt. What you need to wrap your mind around is that paying off debt IS a form of income generation. Every dollar you pay down is essentially 10% after-tax so its equivalent to 13%-14% ROI. Ain't nobody paying those kind of returns unless you start looking into things like DEFI/Crypto for promos and sketchy stuff like that. Yes, people are killing it in the stock market (esp around options) esp on margin.... until a deal goes bad and they are wiped out. How many times can you roll the dice on a craps table before you crap out?

I have some corporate debt I bought that pays 10% wired every month into my bank acct. I had to lock a fairly substantial chunk into this for a 2 year term and the company pays like clockwork... until it doesn't. Would I suggest this investment for some folks? Sure. Would I put any more than 3-5% of my net worth into it? Absolutely not.

Should you pay down your debt, where would the freed up money go? I know you are in a hurry to grow your stock portfolio BUT think about your other upcoming expenses. You've got a DD car with 300K+ mi on it. Eventually, you will need to put that car out to pasture by your choice or because some bill will come in that just isn't cost effective to pay. I could totally see a scenario where money saved would help you afford a car payment (or to buy outright) a car that will have less costs.
 

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Would you buy it?
Short answer
Yes, for the right price. I like them a lot more than C3.Ai (whoever they are) or DoorDash (which annoys me personally by charging a premium over restaurant pricing... even for pickup. **** that.).

Longer Answer
  • I'm hoping AirBNB share price won't blow up because people are still fearful of travel BUT with people looking at the stock market like a casino AND they've already seen a recovery (I'm guessing globally vs in the US), I suspect we may see a pop. I'll watch it closely.
  • If Morgan Stanley (who is one of the underwriters) offers it in eTrade's IPO Center, I'll probably put in a bid.
* It's not chinese so I suspect their auditors have kept them honest. They are reporting revenue net cancellations so it make sense.
* They aggressively cut costs after the pandemic AND squeaked by with a profit in Q3. A neighbor tells me they hit everywhere (not just host onboard / customer service where you'd expect the most employees but also R&D).

* Privately, the shares are valued roughly $35/share. ABNB is looking for $3B so we'll see how many shares they will print and what this will do for the share price.
.


* They have some serious tax disputes coming due which would impact their revenues if they can't succesfully fight them (IMO they won't win: conceptually, local govts have made a ton off tourist taxes. If cities/states start seeing a decline from tourist taxes b/c of AirBNB like businesses, they willl want a piece).

If they do things right, the IPO price will be right at the limit of demand and the price will fall back quickly. I'll watch closely and if that happens, I'll buy in as a longterm holding.

My Personal Feelings
* As a consumer, I think they are a GREAT resource for multi-day family trips. THey aren't a suitable replacement for most business travel (which involve short trips) because cleaning fees really make it not terribly suitable unless you are doing a multi-day stay (what I think you do sometimes). As a business traveler, I want a consistent product. As a vacation traveler, I want amenities and privacy (both of which you can get with AirBNB for similar or potentially less money).

* My own experiences have all been positive: renting a house in our neighborhood for visiting family is MUCH nicer and more convenient than getting multiple hotel rooms in SF... and can be half the cost. We had a similar experience in 2019 when we took our son and my parents to Japan for a trip; we got a great house in a cool neighborhood in central tokyo for a fraction of the cost of two hotel rooms. I found an apartment hotel setup for similar traveler like us but it was smaller (one big efficiency apartment vs multiple bedrooms/bathrooms) and actually cost slightly more per (we used in Kyoto and at the tail end of our trip in Tokyo before flying home). I wouldn't hesitate to use it again.
My last experience was renting a house in Tahoe for a ski weekend with 2-3 families together for a wonderful mini-break (we last did this in Feb 2020 - lucky us). With 4-5 kids, cooking at home is a LOT easier than ordering out or going to a restaurant.

* In SF, hosts must be registered with SF with business licenses - not expensive or hard BUT AirBNB they held off for a long time on telling the city who was listing units but didn't have registration info filed. A LOT of those people were either violating the city regulations on # of days you can offer a unit you dont live in OR were illegally subletting their units -- aka rent controlled tenants paying $1K to their landlord/mo and then subletting via AirBNB to make $100+/night. That's theft). Despite this feet dragging, they have worked things out and like eBay they collect taxes up front and I don't think they are immediately evil though.

* AirBNB never claimed their hosts were anything but hosts. UBER started out calling themselves a ride share coming... like this guy who picked me up was already going near my house and I was just hitching a ride. Right.

* From what I've read, they take care of their hosts. Do you remember how UBER would always try to shift the liability of accidents on to their drivers EXCEPT when they had a driver in the car? I remember a few incidents where uber walked away from an issue b/c a driver was looking at their phone and ran into somebody. **** them. In different situations, AirBNB hosts found the houses they listed trashed... and AirBNB made good on their $1M host guarantees

* I have a neighbor who supplements his retirement income by renting out on AirBNB. He doesnt' need the money to survive but it gives him something to do and its nice to have extra money. He says he hasn't seen his booking really recover but at least in his case, that's OK. Anecdotally, I think people using AirBNB to get away from the city in the summer or going up to a cabin is up this year (even if skiing is IMO, sketchy during the pandemic). He's the one who has given me more insights on the business from the host side and from what I can see, it works.
 

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Thanks so much for the analysis of AirBNB!

"people are still fearful of travel ..." That was my biggest concern. Who wants strangers in their house with COVID going around? OTOH, provided AirBNB survives this pandemic, there's a mint to be made in the concept. Things are looking up with these two - highly effective and near ready - vaccines.

Definitely not suited to business trips: There have been a few occasions in my travels where I've stayed at B&B's prior to the invention of AirBNB. Either due to no hotels near the work site or available hotels being filled up. It's not unusual for someone in my group to be sent to a job with little notice long after the job is well underway making finding a hotel room very difficult. Predominantly I'll stay at either Hilton or Marriott properties. I have Lifetime Diamond status with Hilton and I'm working on Lifetime status with Marriott.

It's crazy! To reach Lifetime Diamond status with Hilton you have to be a Diamond member for 10 years and complete stays totaling at least 1,000 nights. That's over 3 years of living in their hotel rooms and I've done it! I often feel like Ryan Bingham from the movie Up in the Air. Which, BTW, was a great movie! If you haven't seen it I recommend checking it out. Anyway, it's a sad life I lead on the road really. I've missed a LOT of time with my family. It's not all it's cracked up to be sometimes.

I've used LYFT before but never UBER. NOW THAT'S a gig job that you can rack up some supplemental income at, especially in a large METRO area. I once caught a ride in the NYC area and the lady that picked me up was using a rental car. She was making enough to cover the rental AND pay herself. No wonder the NYC Cabbies hate LYFT and UBER so much! LOL

I've recently been looking to pick up some DraftKings (DKNG). Now's the time to buy it! Once the economy opens back up, sports take back off and gambling is widely legalized (Many states are moving in that direction) there's going to be a mint to be made.
 

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Thanks so much for the analysis of AirBNB!

"people are still fearful of travel ..." That was my biggest concern. Who wants strangers in their house with COVID going around? OTOH, provided AirBNB survives this pandemic, there's a mint to be made in the concept. Things are looking up with these two - highly effective and near ready - vaccines.

Definitely not suited to business trips: There have been a few occasions in my travels where I've stayed at B&B's prior to the invention of AirBNB. Either due to no hotels near the work site or available hotels being filled up. It's not unusual for someone in my group to be sent to a job with little notice long after the job is well underway making finding a hotel room very difficult. Predominantly I'll stay at either Hilton or Marriott properties. I have Lifetime Diamond status with Hilton and I'm working on Lifetime status with Marriott.

It's crazy! To reach Lifetime Diamond status with Hilton you have to be a Diamond member for 10 years and complete stays totaling at least 1,000 nights. That's over 3 years of living in their hotel rooms and I've done it! I often feel like Ryan Bingham from the movie Up in the Air. Which, BTW, was a great movie! If you haven't seen it I recommend checking it out. Anyway, it's a sad life I lead on the road really. I've missed a LOT of time with my family. It's not all it's cracked up to be sometimes.

I've used LYFT before but never UBER. NOW THAT'S a gig job that you can rack up some supplemental income at, especially in a large METRO area. I once caught a ride in the NYC area and the lady that picked me up was using a rental car. She was making enough to cover the rental AND pay herself. No wonder the NYC Cabbies hate LYFT and UBER so much! LOL

I've recently been looking to pick up some DraftKings (DKNG). Now's the time to buy it! Once the economy opens back up, sports take back off and gambling is widely legalized (Many states are moving in that direction) there's going to be a mint to be made.
1) I believe AirBNB will survive the pandemic; they don't have hotels and staff who would go idle if noone stays at their hotels so their own costs are much more minimal. If they sell every share they list, they plan to raise $3B. That's plenty of cushion to keep them alive.

2) I chatted with another friend and he believes that even if their core business (apartment/home rentals) comes under attack by competition(VRBO) and other traditional players (not sure how Hilton/etc will make a play), AirBNB will grow into more experiences. I kind of remember seeing some adds pre-pandemic about visiting Italy and getting a cooking calss+meal from an authentic italian grandma. I know this kind of experience is popular (on one of my trips to Israel, the company took us for an authentic Druze meal in a Druze village. Interesting even for the Israelis who live in the country as its not a typical experience) so having people vetted who can do it will be a way for AirBNB to grab more of your vacation budget.

3) I don't think vaccines will help for another year; what is more likely is domestic vacations within countries who have gotten their act together at a nationwide level.

4) I used to give a **** about miles and that kind of stuff (in my 20s, I remember doing stuff like airline runs/mattress runs just to get status + get some promos. I think one of my better deals was a week in hawaii for my parents by booking 5 nights @ a local hilton in Houston for $32/night). I'm sure you have oodles of miles but now the last thing I really want to do on vacation is hop on a plane. Given that most products have eroded in terms of service/amenities, I'm also less inclined to go out of my way just to fly on the "right" airlines to maximize my miles.

5) Lyft is allegedly a better, less evil Uber but the reality in SF at least is most drivers drive for both. i too have met some people who would pay for a rental and drive basically to cover the rental costs BUT I think these people aren't great at calculating the value of their time. Uber/Lyft only exist though b/c cities like NYC and SF were too stingy with taxi medallions so there was HUGE market demand even while the service was sketchy (aka there weren't real insurance policies for drivers). Imagine working 15+ years to get in line for a medallion b/c you know that once you had it, you just needed to drive a few hundred hours a year and you can rent the medallion out to a cab company for $2500/mo. That was the retirement plan for a lot of people. Of course, because they wouldn't drive to the edges of the city (no chances of a return fare), Uber/Lyft came in and stole their lunches. I'm not sad for them at all.

6) I agree about DKNG and disagree about timing/price. While some sports seemed to have played well in a bubble (I don't think there were any infections in the NBA bubble), I'm not so sure about others (MLB).
I'll buy <$35. It's gotten close but not there yet.

There's plenty of time for the market to take a dump. Even with two promising vaccines, one has a serious transportation issues to overcome (my wife says there's a huge backlog in ordering fridges capable of -80C b/c of the Pfizer vaccine) and availability will be an issue. I mentioned 400K+ being my suspicion for the cumulative deaths in the US before EOY 2020; I definitely think we'll see 500K before this is over and removing that many people, while that may be better for social security (how's that for dark), is doing to be a drag on our economy.
 

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AirBNB is on my radar so I put a Google Alert on "AirBNB IPO"
Here's what the cat dragged home today

Forbes argument about buying into AirBNB:
  • Good longterm holding. but IPO frenzy will drive up the price
  • Q4 will probably not look as good (worldwide, people are going into lockdown again)


Business Insider says they secured two $1B loans to stockpile cash. These guys will survive this pandemic.
 

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So buy AFTER the IPO and Q4 drop and hold for brighter days ahead. Got it.
 
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So buy AFTER the IPO and Q4 drop and hold for brighter days ahead. Got it.
Do what you want. I want to see their numbers and if there is any chance of getting in at at the IPO price. If not, the reasoning is sound.


I still think the market is way too far out of whack to expect anything other than a significant correction this winter/spring.
 

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Do what you want. I want to see their numbers and if there is any chance of getting in at at the IPO price. If not, the reasoning is sound.


I still think the market is way too far out of whack to expect anything other than a significant correction this winter/spring.
I’ll watch it. I’m not makang any decisions yet.

In related market news this is a real trumpian, burn the house down on your way out the door move. He knows he’s out of a job and is going to wrecking ball the Treasury to make his successor look bad.


 

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Interesting commentary about ROBLOX IPO coming up. I'm not sure if these guys will go the way of Zynga though (massive revenue, minting cash, IPO, then dwindling growth). It's hard to come out with hit after hit or diversify from a single game into a platform (like EPIC Games seems to be doing with their firehose of Fortnite money)
 
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