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Discussion Starter #161
What is going on over at Ford (F)? From what I can see and understand, they're in it for the long haul, but they also need to make up some ground on the short to medium term. Losses in China (even before Corona Virus / COV-19) aren't helping either.


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BABA and NVDA have earnings reports on the 13th.

I love BABA and believe they have a bright future ahead of them. I'd buy BABA on any dip under $200.

I'd buy NVDA at any price.
... as I was saying about NVDA ... :sneaky: They're up 6% after hours ~ $17.00 on a strong earnings report.

BTW, TSLA rebounded nicely today + $36.71 (+ 4.78%)
 

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TSLA is making another run to 1,000 today! Woo Hoo!

I was doing some research into trading COV-19

Here's the general consensus:

Buy: Zoom Video Communications (ZM) Target ~ 107: Why? Teleconferencing is taking the place of face to face meetings in business as a rule of thumb and especially as a result of the COV-19 outbreak. Zoom has a who's who of clients including: Video Conferencing, Web Conferencing, Webinars, Screen Sharing


Buy Pharma:
  • Gilead (GILD)
  • Sanofi (SNY)
  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
  • Moderna (MRNA)
 

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1) I use lots of video conferencing systems for work and while Zoom is one of the better ones, WEBEX (owned by CISCO) is still the default one to beat in terms of widespread compatibility and minimal issues. You want the stuff to just work. We use MS Skype for Business (which uses our servers) and while it works OK for internal mtgs, stuff stops working consistently (e.g. when you have people from multiple continents and outside of our internal network OR perhaps when they have their own MS Skype server and they start contending with each other). MS Teams is like the MS cloud powered version of this kind of collaboration SW. Hangouts is also used by some companies as well. Bottom line: Zoom+GoToMtg+WEBEX are click a link and launch a mtg. Others, not so much.

  • Zoom works well enough but I question if it will ever truly be a telepresence solution (where it feels like your conf room is an extension to their room).
  • CISCO sells systems like this for $$$$$.
  • For what it's worth, there is a market for enterprise grade conferencing systems (a system that beyond just sharing a presentation/screen, you can see the remote users in a room and gauge their reactions). Poly (formerly Plantronics+Polycomm) and Logitech play in this market. While some have their own proprietary SW, all of them also work with the big players like Zoom/WEBEX. Their ability to enable fancier features (like zoom in on the person in each room talking) are kind of hampered by the API though.
Conclusion:
  • I believe video conferencing tech will be used but I'm not 100% sold it will replace F2F meetings unless the tech takes a significant leap forward.
  • I'm not sold ZOOM will be the winner here long term so the question is when to sell off.
2) As far as the other companies you mentioned
GILD has been stuck in doldrums forever. Full disclosure - I know folks who work there but all this info is public. Their play is on repurposing an Ebola vaccine that didnt prove as effective (on ebola) as other existing treatments. I hope it works for coronavirus but I question the company's longterm prospects (they haven't had a real blockbuster since their Hep B/C treatment back in 2017 and Truvada -- the PrEP drug -- goes off patent in 2020).

GSK, J&J, and Sanofi are other companies chasing the Coronavirus vaccine. Even if one of them finds a cure, it's not like they will make $$$$$ for it.
- Companies which make vaccines for things like the flu today aren't

- Countries in trouble (like china) will just compel a patent license with the WTO on humanitarian grounds. While they are cooperating with GILD on trials, if it works China is already taking steps to avoid paying GILD their due.

3) My personal goal is still to find stocks unduly depressed by the coronavirus, buy on the dip, and sell on the recovery.
Gambling on who might "win" from Corvid-19 seems like a much riskier gamble. Plenty of things could similarly drag them down (like a global downturn).
 

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I never heard of Moderna so I read up on them.

  • They are pioneering the use of mRNA vaccine treatments. They seem to be the biggest company looking at it. Their CEO seems to be really into the "hype machine" and pushing the idea that mRNA can be encoded to tell the body's cells to develop its own protein cures.. instead of grown said proteins externally. Problem is the mRNA has to avoid the body's immune response AND convince the body's lipid cells to grow whatever its encoded for in sufficient quantity to treat the target condition. The other issue is delivery - how to get the mRNA cells into the parts of the body where you want the response to occur.
  • They have a lot cash from their IPO ($1.3B) but they are burning money at an impressive rate (~$150M/qtr) which means they have a little over 2 yrs worth of cash on hand at their current burn rate.... which isn't a lot
  • They have several drugs/vaccines in trial now. The stock will spike or crater depending on how well they do but all are all years away from production
  • One comment here: why is mRNA technology supposed to be interesting for vaccines? Well, the goal of a vaccine is to trigger an immune response from the body. if an mRNA can be encoded with a little bit of the target virus (Zika, Covid-19, etc), it only has to produce a small amount of protein succesfully for the vaccine to be effective. They are saying it could only take a few weeks go develop. Hrm.

Bottom line: I think MRNA is a more interesting one than GILD or J&J (which is too big). Stock is up 64% from its 52week low but its 63% of its 52 week high ($29.79). It has spiked a little but its still near where it started the year at so I don't think the Covid19 hype has talked it up. I'm going to talk to some friends about it so thanks for bringing it to my attention.
-g
 

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First of all, thanks so much for your detailed analysis and thoughts on these companies. Please share what you learn about (MRNA).

At my company we use Circuit by Unify (UFI) for conferencing. I was looking more closely at (ZM) and I see that they're relatively new "Founded by a former vice president of engineering at Cisco, Eric Yuan, back in 2011" they only started trading publicly in April of last year. It interesting that you mention WEBEX and CISCO, as Zoom also has a Cisco connection as quoted above.

Yes, the best approach to COV-19 is to see which off-the-shelf drugs work best first before moving onto developing something new or redeveloping an existing drug to target the new virus. The companies I mentioned were discussed in a segment that I saw on big pharma's work to counter COV-19. As you said, pharma isn't going to get rich on this one. May be medical supply companies and casket makers? LOL /gallows humor.

Barring an even greater outbreak, at current levels of infection, supply chain disruptions along with travel (Cruise and Air; as we discussed previously) are going to be among the most impacted. Unless I'm missing something I haven't really seen anything yet that fits the description "unduly depressed by the coronavirus, buy on the dip, and sell on the recovery. "

-Ron
 

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First of all, thanks so much for your detailed analysis and thoughts on these companies. Please share what you learn about (MRNA).

At my company we use Circuit by Unify (UFI) for conferencing. I was looking more closely at (ZM) and I see that they're relatively new "Founded by a former vice president of engineering at Cisco, Eric Yuan, back in 2011" they only started trading publicly in April of last year. It interesting that you mention WEBEX and CISCO, as Zoom also has a Cisco connection as quoted above.

Yes, the best approach to COV-19 is to see which off-the-shelf drugs work best first before moving onto developing something new or redeveloping an existing drug to target the new virus. The companies I mentioned were discussed in a segment that I saw on big pharma's work to counter COV-19. As you said, pharma isn't going to get rich on this one. May be medical supply companies and casket makers? LOL /gallows humor.

Barring an even greater outbreak, at current levels of infection, supply chain disruptions along with travel (Cruise and Air; as we discussed previously) are going to be among the most impacted. Unless I'm missing something I haven't really seen anything yet that fits the description "unduly depressed by the coronavirus, buy on the dip, and sell on the recovery. "

-Ron
Think travel.Hotelchains maybe. Stuff that will bounce back.

A big worldwide conference in Barcelona was just cancelled - mobile world Congress. It's like CES for the cellphone related technology market. That had to hurt Barcelona's tourism business as it's a big worldwide show.

other than that, maybe 3M?
 

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First of all, thanks so much for your detailed analysis and thoughts on these companies. Please share what you learn about (MRNA).

At my company we use Circuit by Unify (UFI) for conferencing. I was looking more closely at (ZM) and I see that they're relatively new "Founded by a former vice president of engineering at Cisco, Eric Yuan, back in 2011" they only started trading publicly in April of last year. It interesting that you mention WEBEX and CISCO, as Zoom also has a Cisco connection as quoted above.

Yes, the best approach to COV-19 is to see which off-the-shelf drugs work best first before moving onto developing something new or redeveloping an existing drug to target the new virus. The companies I mentioned were discussed in a segment that I saw on big pharma's work to counter COV-19. As you said, pharma isn't going to get rich on this one. May be medical supply companies and casket makers? LOL /gallows humor.

Barring an even greater outbreak, at current levels of infection, supply chain disruptions along with travel (Cruise and Air; as we discussed previously) are going to be among the most impacted. Unless I'm missing something I haven't really seen anything yet that fits the description "unduly depressed by the coronavirus, buy on the dip, and sell on the recovery. "

-Ron
Ron
Here's a good video that explains mRNA treatments.

HS biology was 20+ years ago for me now but its interesting to see how Moderna (in the video) says that their mRNA focus "cuts out the middleman" of first editing the DNA. You can tell this is a pitch man.

1) To get around the body having an immune response to the mRNA they plan to inject, they replace the uridine (one of the 4 "bits" in the mRNA encoding) with a variant called pseudouridine. I guess that works but I'm still not sure how science fiction like this technology is (is floating the mRNA strand near some RNA polymerase -- the transcriptoin engine -- good enough? How often will it actually duplicate the target sequence)? They also encase the mRNA strand in a lipid (aka a fat) so its soluable.

If the output is what you want (the injected mRNA contains instructions for making something you want in the cell), how do you get it in to the right cells?

2) I get that it doesn't need to work that well if the goal is that the mRNA generates a chunk of a virus to get the body to attack the virus. What I'm not sure about is how effective the getting it into the cell part is and I'm smart enough to realize that Moderna isn't going to give you a straight answer as they aren't exactly unbiased. They will spin things to their benefit.


Bottom line: In order to feel comfortable about a longterm play on MRNA, I want to talk to some biochem nerd friends about them.

I find it interesting how they describe their whole mRNA workflow in computer/tech jargon. I guess they know their target retail investor (aka someone with extra cash to invest in something that doesn't make any money yet) is probably someone who is more familiar with software, Operating Systems and tape drives than biology. This is probably correct.

---
How the market will react to whatever front runner the dems put up will also be scary. I liquidated a bunch of one stock I had too much of today but instead of just dumping the money into the market in a diversification play, I'm going to chill for a little bit.
I agree that the everything rally is scary. Why the hell should Virgin Galactic surge 118% just in this month?
 

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Here's my half-completed homework on hotels


1) This stock comparison chart shows a combination of US (Hilton, Marriott, inter continental, and Mariott) and Chinese (HTHT) hotel operators (vs real estate holdings) as thin lines and the cruise companies as the thick lines. I built it using the stock screener to identify all hotel mgmt companies AND picked the ones which I know are found internationally (aka no choice hotels)

2) They all pooped the bed on Jan 17th (we all know why). Move left-right to see how they did relative to a common date as a starting point.

Unknowns
  • I'm not sure why most are flat for the past month or a little higher from the when they fell on the 17th. Maybe they had good earnings and unlike the cruise ship companies minimal/no adverse impacts so far? The cruise ship companies are still much farther down from their position 1 month ago.
  • I'm not sure I see enough of a dip to bet on hotels.
 

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Discussion Starter #172
What are your guys thoughts on the pounding the markets have been taking the last few days?
 

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Well, I'm riding it out (I don't have much choice at this point). Should have seen this coming on Thursday or Friday of last week and done some selling - and buying. I see that the pharmas I mentioned on 2/19 are both up. I must confess though that I didn't buy them.
  • Gilead (GILD) up from 67 to 72 since 2/19
  • Moderna (MRNA) - Up from 19.00 to 26.00 since 2/19
All indications are that Cov-19 is coming to the US in force and there's nothing we can do about it but watch. So far the only trade that I've set is what I consider a ridiculously low limit buy order on Delta (DAL) - my preferred airline - of $37. This is near the 5 year low price set in June of 2016 and $11 below today's price.

I've been busy with work today and haven't had time to follow today's market activity.

I joked about it before but I'm seriously going to start looking at the companies in the link below. Even at "only" 20% fatality rate COV-19 is going to kill a lot of people. All indications are that it's not a matter of if but when it gets to the US in force.


I have ZERO faith in Trump or Pence to do anything meaningful to prepare for or counter this outbreak except to give lip service. I know that they've already done little to prepare for let alone act on an outbreak like this since taking office.
 

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1) I was talking to my parents and a few other older folks. At 41, I can ride out 2-3 more downturns. I suggested to them that they throttle back a little more of their net worth (esp in their retirement accounts). I dunno if any listened.
2) I liquidated a bunch of stocks last week and except for a small position in CCL (which is down 20% from when I bought in). Clearly, I didn't find the bottom on that stock before but luckily, 15% of my total net worth (not including my home) is in cash and 23.9% is in bonds/RE. Thats waay too high for my age but makes sense given my economic outlook for the past year. I'm going to sit like this for a while and ride this **** out before jumping back in.
3) As far as airlines are concerned, besides travel I think Boeing's 777MAX fuckup is a bigger risk than cruise lines. I'm gonna wait.

I don't think ZOOM, GILD, or MRNA's gains are sustainable. Esp MRNA. $18 -> $29 and back down to $26 today is clearly a gambling engine. /r/wallstreetbets territory.

4) On death. Its a 2.3% fatality -- not 20%. If it was a 20% fatality rate, we have bigger issues than the stock market or which hole to drop granny in. IMO, we'd be looking at a breakdown in civil society. Nice knowing you folks.

5) As far as Pence is concerned, well, I still have faith that the CDC and some of the other relevant govt orgs haven't been quite gutted yet. His response might not be as positive as if we had someone who say, actually believed in science (From "smoking doesn't kill" to conversion therapy—Mike Pence's most controversial science remarks), but there are still others who will do the good work of govt. As a side idea, well maybe his praying will save us all. Also, maybe TSLA will hit $1K again.

6) Oh, on TSLA. We talked about TSLA being a good buy in the $500s again. Its at $679 now. Still feel that way when your 401K is now a 361K?

PS. How are you folks on emergency suppliers (water, shelf stable food, etc?). In CA, they say you should be ready to take care of yourselves for up to 72 hours. I prepared for that but in the event that say CA is quarantined, it might be prudent to stock up a little more.
PSS. My wife says that she tried buying some hand sanitizer for work and simply couldn't find any on Amazon for an affordable price. Clearly people are starting to stock up.
 

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1) Like you, at 49, I can ride out 2-3 more market downturns. Wow, the market has become a self licking ice cream cone. The more it drops the more automated selling is triggered, wash and repeat.

2) Definitely going to have to "ride this **** out". I wish I had liquidated some of my holdings last week.

3) Still keeping a close eye on BA. And they're STILL sorting through issues. Most recently there was the debris in the fuel cell issue and the newly discoverd 737 MAX issue of some problem with the metallic shielding of engine-control wiring (kind of an airborne lightening rod). Just buy the other half of the duopoly Airbus SE (OTCPK:EADSY) and keep an eye on BA. It will probably take another year for them to sort this mess out and get back on track.


Yes, I agree, the gains in ZOOM, GILD and MRNA are not sustainable. They're trades not investments.

4) Yeah, 2.3% not 20%. I knew it was 2-something but didn't look the exact number up last night. Even at a 2.3% fatality rate that's still 23,000 fatalities per 1 million people.

5) So true about the gutting of federal agencies. I could write more but I'll bite my tongue. Yeah, you covered it well.

6) TSLA. Might be time to buy back in!

Not stocked up yet. But I was going to discuss with my wife buying some extra non-perishable food to stock up - probably a two week supply.
 

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Discussion Starter #176
A friend of mine told me about iBioPharma (IBIO) last night working on COVID-19. It closed at $0.86 yesterday and this morning it opened a full dollar higher. I didn't get to it right at the open and was at $2.37 when I bought. I'm keeping a close eye on it and have already set a stop loss on it.
 

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Well, that was a quick fun run, lol. I made 35% profit on that.
IBIO
  • Good for you! 33c ->$3.36. There is no asset in the worth that can justify that kind of climb.
  • They own the only US factory that could be used to rapidly grow whatever vaccine might be necessary to fight the pandemic.
  • Market cap was only 145M. Revenue for the whole damn company is less than what one rockstar code monkey can make and they are bleeding money.
  • Apparently, this stock got hit with a short squeeze just like TSLA. iBio (IBIO) Stock: Here's Why It's Running Upward | Alpha Stock News
  • Its very thinly traded. Then, boom! massive volume.
  • IMO, could have been a Pump and dump
  • Next time, please let us know if you think some stock is worth investigating.

BA vs EADSY
Clearly, BA is a bigger loser here
redirecting...

I think its telling that BA hasn't done end to end simulation testing in their vehicles - latest was about the spareship crew capsule
Management seems to be supporting cost cutting vs engineers. Which as someone who still has an engineering mindset even if I do sales, kind of blows my mind.

Until this **** is fixed, BA is still bleeding money. I doubt they will close up shop but how long do you want to hold onto that stock and what price is "cheap enough" to buy in?

As far as EADSY is concerned, I guess the play is to consider how much you think the whole market will rebou
So at the end fo the day, the question is whether BA is cheap enough because of the CV-19 discount + mismanagement discont vs EADSY's discount for just the CV-19 drama alone.
 

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Well, that was a quick fun run, lol. I made 35% profit on that.
IBIO
  • Good for you! 33c ->$3.36. There is no asset in the worth that can justify that kind of climb.
  • They own the only US factory that could be used to rapidly grow whatever vaccine might be necessary to fight the pandemic.
  • Market cap was only 145M. Revenue for the whole damn company is less than what one rockstar code monkey can make and they are bleeding money.
  • Apparently, this stock got hit with a short squeeze just like TSLA. iBio (IBIO) Stock: Here's Why It's Running Upward | Alpha Stock News
  • Its very thinly traded. Then, boom! massive volume.
  • IMO, could have been a Pump and dump
  • Next time, please let us know if you think some stock is worth investigating.

BA vs EADSY
Clearly, BA is a bigger loser here
redirecting...

I think its telling that BA hasn't done end to end simulation testing in their vehicles - latest was about the spareship crew capsule
Management seems to be supporting cost cutting vs engineers. Which as someone who still has an engineering mindset even if I do sales, kind of blows my mind.

Until this **** is fixed, BA is still bleeding money. I doubt they will close up shop but how long do you want to hold onto that stock and what price is "cheap enough" to buy in?

As far as EADSY is concerned, I guess the play is to consider how much you think the whole market will rebou
So at the end fo the day, the question is whether BA is cheap enough because of the CV-19 discount + mismanagement discont vs EADSY's discount for just the CV-19 drama alone.
 

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Well, that was a quick fun run, lol. I made 35% profit on that.
IBIO
  • Good for you! 33c ->$3.36 in 3 days. There is no asset in the worth that can justify that kind of climb.
  • They own the only US factory that could be used to rapidly grow whatever vaccine might be necessary to fight the pandemic.
  • Market cap was only 145M. Revenue for the whole damn company is less than what one rockstar code monkey can make and they are bleeding money.
  • Apparently, this stock got hit with a short squeeze just like TSLA. iBio (IBIO) Stock: Here's Why It's Running Upward | Alpha Stock News
  • Its very thinly traded. Then, boom! massive volume.
  • IMO, could have been a Pump and dump
  • Next time, please let us know if you think some stock is worth investigating.

BA vs EADSY
Clearly, BA is a bigger loser here
redirecting...

I think its telling that BA hasn't done end to end simulation testing in their vehicles - latest was about the spareship crew capsule
Management seems to be supporting cost cutting vs engineers. Which as someone who still has an engineering mindset even if I do sales, kind of blows my mind.

Until this **** is fixed, BA is still bleeding money. I doubt they will close up shop but how long do you want to hold onto that stock and what price is "cheap enough" to buy in?

As far as EADSY is concerned, I guess the play is to consider how much you think the whole market will rebou
So at the end fo the day, the question is whether BA is cheap enough because of the CV-19 discount + mismanagement discont vs EADSY's discount for just the CV-19 drama alone.
 
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